PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS 2014

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The Attheraces.com Champion INH Flat Race takes place on day 2 of the Punchestown Festival on Wednesday 30th April. A grade 1 run over 2 miles, it should attract several runners from the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, from which 5 of the last 6 winners of this have come.






Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:




Age
4yo: 1-4-23
5yo: 4-9-75
6yo: 4-6-44
7yo: 1-1-7
No very strong stats on ages of winners.

Gender
Mares (1-3-27) have won 1 of last 10 from approximately 18.1% of total runners.

Breeding
Irish bred: 9-14-120
GB bred: 1-3-16
NZ bred: 0-1-1
USA bred: 0-1-3
French bred: 0-1-7
German bred: 0-0-2
7 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (2 of 3 exceptions sired by a stallion that was placed in either the French Derby or English 2000 Guineas, other was sired by a Sadler's Wells stallion who ran just twice)
8 of 10 winners sired by a stallion that won or placed in a European Classic

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 exceptions were 4th in grade 2 Aintree bumper & Cheltenham Champion Bumper)
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners had won 1 or 2 bumpers (exception had won 3)
9 of 10 winners won a bumper with 10+ runners (exception twice runner-up in bumpers with 10+ runners)
6 of 10 winners had won a bumper by 6+ lengths (2 exceptions had finished in first 2 in Champion Bumper)
7 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 or 2 bumper
2 of 10 winners had won at Punchestown (other 8 having first run here)
9 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track
8 of 8 Irish-trained winners had won a bumper at Punchestown, Fairyhouse, Limerick or Navan

Other Races
Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner (Silver Concorde): 42111 (3-1-5)
www.leopardstown.com (Pro/Am) 4yo INH Flat Race winner (Aminabad): 712 (1-1-3)
Kevin McManus Bookmaker bumper winner (Aminabad): 04124 (1-1-5)
P.J. Foley Memorial INH Flat Race winner (Black Hercules): 165 (1-0-3)
Tipper Road NH Flat Race winner (Killultagh Vic): 2 (0-1-1)
Old House Kill 4yo Bumper winner (Black Hercules): 5 (0-0-1)
Paddy Power We Pay Up To 1 Million Bumper winner (Killultagh Vic): 6 (0-0-1)
Ryanair INH Flat Race winner (Value At Risk): 6 (0-0-1)
O'Doherty's Audio & Video Production Ltd 4yo INH Flat Race winner (Shaneshill): 06 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) ran in Cheltenham Champion bumper, finishing 411014
2 of 10 winners ran in the Future Champions Bumper, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Fairyhouse Vets Promoting Equine Health Flat Race, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in a 2m Fairyhouse bumper in January, finishing 11

Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-1-21) has trained 3 of the last 6 winners.
Dermot Weld (1-2-6) has seen his last 3 runners in this finish 3rd-1st-2nd.
David Pipe (1-0-1) trained The Liquidator to win this last year.
British trained horses (2-1-18) have won 2 of the last 10.

Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners were positioned in the first 7 at the halfway point
This is not a race you want to be too far forward or too far back. The winner has generally raced prominently or settled in midfield. Champagne Fever became first horse to make all in the race in 2012.

Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No very strong trends on prices though the longest priced winner since 2004 has been 11/1 and the last 6 winners went off 8/1 or shorter and came from first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (4-2-11) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 3.40.


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Gelding sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on flat (ideally placed in a classic)
- Run 2 to 5 times since August
- Finish 1st or 2nd last time
- Won 1 to 3 bumpers
- Won a bumper with 10+ runners
- Won a bumper by 6 lengths or more
- Contested a grade 1 or 2
- Won at a right-handed track
- Won bumper at Limerick, Fairyhouse Punchestown or Navan
- Finished in first 4 in Cheltenham Champion Bumper
- Finished in first 2 in Future Champions and/or Fairyhouse Vets Flat Race
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Dermot Weld or David Pipe
- Priced 8/1 or shorter.