VICTORIA CUP TRENDS 2014

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The big handicap on Saturday 10th May is the Totepool Victoria Cup at Ascot, a class 2 heritage handicap run over 7 furlongs. It always attracts a big field and the draw can often make a big difference. In 2005 the race was run at Lingfield.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-9-87
5yo: 3-11-72
6yo: 2-5-40
7yo+: 1-5-43
No strong trend on the ages of winners in past 10 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 9-0 or more: 2-14-80
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-12-94
horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-4-68
8 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 8-5 to 8-13
Top weight: 94700000603 (0-2-11)

Official Ratings
horses rated 98 or higher: 1-8-57
horses rated 90 to 97: 7-20-139
horses rated 89 or lower: 2-2-46
8 of the last 9 winners have been officially rated between 88 and 96.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that year
8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or higher last time
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 95+ last time out
9 of 10 winners won over 7F or further
8 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps (2 of 3 exceptions post an RPR of 103+ on previous start)
2 of 10 winners had won over the CD (1 exception twice placed over CD and other 7 having first course start)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Excellent Guest): 4400 (0-2-4)
Ladbrokes Handicap winner (Purcell): 4 (0-1-1)
Betfred Challenge Cup winner (Heaven's Guest): 806 (0-0-3)
Record of horses placed in previous Bunbury Cup: 184100 (2-1-6)
Record of first 4 from Spring Cup: 100010 (2-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's International Stakes, finishing 030
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in Spring Cup last time, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Betfred Mile, finishing 95
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Bunbury Cup, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Clipper Logistics Stakes, finishing 09

Trainers
David Barron (1-3-6) has gained a win and 3 places from 6 runners in past 10 runnings.
Brian Meehan (1-1-3) saddled the winner in 2009 and the runner-up in 2011.
Brian Ellison (1-0-2) & George Margason (1-0-6) have trained the last 2 winners.
Richard Fahey (0-2-8) has saddled a couple of placed finishers since 2004.
Clive Brittain (0-1-2) trained the winner in 2003 and his 2 runners in past 10 years have finished 4th & 6th. Ed Vaughan (0-1-1) & Luca Cumani (0-1-1) have both seen their one runner get placed.
Andrew Balding (0-0-8) & Kevin Ryan (0-0-13) have fared poorly in this race since 2004.

Draw (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
horses drawn 1 to 9: 5-13-81
horses drawn 10 to 19: 3-10-90
horses drawn 21 or higher: 1-4-53
No very strong trends on the draw though in past 10 years, though 11 of 20 places in past 5 renewals were filled by horses drawn 1 to 9.

Racing Tactics (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
7 of 9 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
Only 2 winners of the race at Ascot since 2003 raced prominently throughout.

Price
No very strong trend on prices with 6 of 10 winners coming from first 3 in the betting and the other 4 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-2-11) have gained 3 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Carrying 8-5 to 8-13
- Officially rated 88 to 96
- Run no more than twice in 2014
- Ran a class 2 or higher last time out in past 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 95+ last time out
- Won over 7F+
- Won a class 3 or higher worth 9K+
- Placed in 2013 Bunbury Cup and/or 2014 Spring Cup
- Tends to be held up
- Trained by David Barron, Brian Meehan or Clive Brittain
- horses drawn 1 to 9 are favoure.