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    Default POULE D'ESSAI DES POULICHES TRENDS 2014

    The Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (the French equivalent of the 1000 Guineas) takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 11th May. You have to go back to 2002 for the last winner that wasn’t trained in France. Like its male equivalent, a low draw seems key.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 5-10-37
    American bred: 1-3-18
    British bred: 2-4-32
    French bred: 2-2-40
    German bred: 0-1-2
    Spanish bred: 0-0-1
    UAE bred: 0-0-1
    8 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in first 2 in a group 1 over 6F to 1M
    7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished 1st or 2nd in group 1 as a 2yo
    6 of 10 winners were sired by a horse who ran in the Prix Morny (finished 161221) (5 different sires)
    9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of less than 10.0f (exception by Galileo)
    Progeny of Zamindar (since 2000): 011410 (3-0-6)
    Progeny of Galileo: 9182 (1-1-4)
    Progeny of Danehill Dancer: 2342 (0-3-4)

    Recent Form
    10 of 10 winners won last time out
    Last 9 winners posted an RPR of 105+ last time
    9 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
    9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that year
    7 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (1 exception was having first course start & 2 others were 3rd in listed race and 4th in group 1 on only runs here)
    10 of 10 winners had had between 2 and 6 career starts
    9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 on all career starts (exception won a grade 1 last time)
    10 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race
    4 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception was 2nd in a group 1 and other 5 having first try in a group 1)
    9 of 10 winners had won over a mile (exception was 2nd in a group 1 on only previous start over a mile)
    3 of 10 winners made their debut as a 2yo in a 1M Saint Cloud maiden

    Other Races
    Prix De La Grotte winner (Lesstalk In Paris): 2141122110 (5-3-10)
    Prix De Marcel Boussac winner (Indonesienne): 12144 (2-1-5)
    Prix Imprudence winner (Xcellence): 513 (1-1-3)
    Prix De La Cascade winner (Veda): 1 (1-0-1)
    Prix D'Arenberg winner (This Time): 2 (0-1-1)
    Rockfel Stakes winner (Al Thakhira): 62 (0-1-2)
    Prix du Louvre winner (Veda): 2958 (0-1-4)
    Prix D'Aumale winner (Lesstalk In Paris): 50 (0-0-2)
    Prix Polly Girl winner (Bawina): 00 (0-0-2)
    Prix Ronde de Nuit winner (Ice Love): 900 (0-0-3)
    5 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De La Grotte, finishing 11111
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Marcel Boussac, finishing 1124
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Finlande, finishing 13
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 13
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Prix Esmerelda, finishing 11

    Trainers
    Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-1-6) has saddled 2 winners and seen 5 of his 6 runners make first 4.
    Andre Fabre (1-3-8) trained the winner in 2003 & 2011 and saddled the 2nd & 3rd last year.
    Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-8) has trained a winner and a place since 2004.
    Aidan O’Brien (0-3-10) won the race in 2001 but his last 10 runners have produced just 3 places.
    British based trainers (0-2-23) have gained no wins and just 2 places from approximately 17.6% of the total runners. The last 3 British-trained runners to make the frame all bypassed Newmarket Guineas.
    Irish trained runners (0-4-13) have gained no wins and 4 places from 13 runners, though 3 of the 4 to make the frame were from O’Brien’s stable.

    Draw
    If you omit the 1 running of this race with less than 10 runners the draw stats read:
    horses drawn 1 to 4: 1-8-36
    horses drawn 5 to 8: 7-3-36
    horses drawn 9 to 12: 1-4-33
    horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-3-18
    8 of 9 winners in renewals with 10+ runners were drawn 7 or lower.
    horses drawn 7 or lower: 8-11-63
    horses drawn 8 or higher: 1-7-60
    The exception was Special Duty (6/4 favourite) in 2010, who was awarded the race after finishing 2nd, from stall 10, to Liliside (drawn 6).

    Price
    No strong trends on the prices though 8 winners came from first 3 in the betting, including the last 7.
    Favourites (5-4-10) have won 5 of the last 8 and show a level stakes profit of 0.20 since 2003. 2 of 5 odds-on favourites have been turned over in the past 10 renewals.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - By a sire with a stamina index of less than 10.0f
    - Daughters of Zamindar do particularly well
    - Had 2 to 6 career starts
    - Made debut as a 2yo in a 1M Saint Cloud maiden
    - Run once or twice in 2014
    - Won last time out
    - Posted an RPR of 105+ last time out
    - Never finished worse than 3rd (or a previous group 1 winner)
    - Previously on over a mile
    - Course winner (or having first course start)
    - Won the Prix De La Grotte and/or Prix Esmeralda
    - First 3 in the Prix de Marcel Boussac, Imprudence, Morny or Finlande
    - Trained in France, especially by Alan De Royer-Dupre or Andre Fabre
    - Drawn 7 or lower (stalls 5 & 6 produced 7 of last 10 winners)
    - From first 3 in the betting.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    neilb (9th May 2014) 


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