DANTE STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The Betfred Dante Stakes on Thursday 15th May is the highlight of York’s May meeting. Three of the last ten winners of the Dante went on to win the Epsom Derby so whatever wins this will likely move towards the top of the Derby market.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-5-28
British bred: 3-5-29
American bred: 1-1-9
German bred: 0-2-3
French bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 from approximately 40% of total runners.
10 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (9 of 10 sires had won a group 1 over 1M 2F+)
10 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 9.0f to 11.6f
6 of the last 9 winners were sired by Sadler's Wells or a son/grandson of Sadler's Wells

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had won a race
6 of 10 winners won last time
9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 100+ last time
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M+ (2 exceptions both trained by Aidan O'Brien had only won over 7F)
6 of 10 winners were making their seasonal debut
4 of 10 winners had won a group race (3 of 6 exceptions won their maiden last time out, other 2 exceptions finished 3rd or 4th in a group race last time)
10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut over 7F or further
8 of last 10 British-trained winners made their debut at Sandown, Salisbury or Newmarket

Other Races
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 1618 (2-0-4)
Powerstown Stud European Breeders Fund Maiden winner (Mandatario): 2 (0-1-1)
Autumn Stakes winner (Kingston Hill): 52 (0-1-2)
Weatherbys EBF Maiden Stakes winner (True Story): 4 (0-0-1)
Wedgewood Estates E B F Maiden Stakes winner (Kingston Hill): 5 (0-0-1)
Feilden Stakes winner (True Story): 9 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 131
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien winners ran in the Prix La Force last time, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) made debut as 2yos in Francis Clark EBF Maiden, finishing 21

The Epsom Derby
Record of the Dante winner in the Epsom Derby reads 110120362 (3-4-9)

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-4-11) has seen 7 of his 8 runners since 2006 win or place in this.
Andrew Balding (1-0-1) & Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) have each saddled 1 winner since 2004.
Jim Bolger (0-1-1) & Roger Varian (0-1-1) have saddled the runner-up in past 2 runnings.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-7) last won the race in 2002 but has only seen 1 of his 7 runners make the frame in last 10 years.

Price
No strong trends on prices. 3 of last 6 winners were priced between 10/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 3.47.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M 2F+
- Had 2 to 5 career starts
- Had first ever start over 7F or further (ideally at Newmarket, Salisbury or Sandown)
- Posted an RPR of 100+ last time
- Previously won a group race or won their maiden last time out
- Won over 1M+
- Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Racing Post Trophy
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien.