LOCKINGE STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The JLT Lockinge Stakes is the big race on Saturday 17th May, a group 1 run over a mile at Newbury. The previous season’s QEII and Sussex Stakes have proven good guides to this in recent years.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-13-55
5yo: 3-4-21
6yo: 1-1-11
7yo+: 0-0-9
No strong trend on ages.
3 of the 4 winners aged 5+ were all previous group 1 winners, other had finished 2nd in a group 1’s on last 4 starts.

Gender
Fillies/mares (3-0-8) have gained 3 win from just 8 runners in this. All 3 female winners have won a group 1 over a mile the previous year. 2 of the 3 were trained by Michael Stoute.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 8 to 17 career starts
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 115+ in one or both of last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners won over a mile
7 of 10 winners had won a Group 1 (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in a Group 1 or 2)
9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd a group 1
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (2 of 3 exceptions ran in Sandown Bet365 Mile)
9 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race
6 of 10 winners were having their first course start (other 4 had won here)
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 113 or higher

Other Races
Sussex Stakes winner (Toronado): 211 (2-1-3)
Highest placed finisher from previous Sussex Stakes: 38451111 (4-1-8)
QEII Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 11 (2-0-2)
Bet365 Mile winner (Tullius): 53654140 (1-1-8)
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Magician): 91 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Greenham Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 441 (1-0-3)
Joel Stakes winner (Soft Falling Rain): 6157 (1-0-4)
Previous season's Craven Stakes winner (Toronado): 530 (0-1-3)
Gladness Stakes winner (Sruthan): 772 (0-1-3)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Gregorian): 042 (0-1-3)
Thoroughbred Stakes winner (Montiridge): 90 (0-0-2)
Record of first 4 from previous 2000 Guineas: 354131 (2-1-6)
4 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in previous season's Sussex Stakes, finishing 2112
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's QEII Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's St James Palace, finishing 611
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's 2000 Guineas, finishing 31
2 of 6 winners (last 2) aged 4 ran in previous season's Greenham Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 21
2 of 4 winners aged 5+ ran in previous season's Eclipse Stakes, finishing 82
2 of 4 winners aged 5+ ran in previous season's Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet365 Mile last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 54
2 of 3 females winner ran in previous season's Sun Chariot, finishing 15

Trainers
The Richard Hannon yard (2-1-10) has trained 2 of the last 4 winners of this race.
John Gosden (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2009.
Aidan O’Brien (0-1-8) saddled Hawk Wing to win it in 2003 but has only gained 1 place from 8 runners in past 10 years.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from the first 4 in the betting.
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with the last 10 winners going off at single figure odds.
Favourites (6-0-10) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 5.55.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 (or a multiple group 1 winner aged 5 or 6)
- Fillies & mares do well
- Won over a mile or further
- Won a group 1 or 2
- Having first run of 2014 or ran in Bet365 Mile
- Course winner or having first run at Newbury
- Finished in first 2 in 2013 QEII and/or Sussex Stakes
- Finished in first 3 in 2013 St James Palace, Greenham and/or a 2000 Guineas
- From the first 4 in the betting
- Trained by Richard Hannon.