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    Default EPSOM DERBY TRENDS 2014

    This year’s Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 7th June. In the past 10 years the Dante and 2000 Guineas have proven the key trials for the race, with 8 of last 10 winners having finished 1st or 2nd in one of those 2 races.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:

    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 6-9-63
    British bred: 4-8-52
    American bred: 0-3-13
    French bred: 0-0-6
    German bred: 0-0-3
    10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
    10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
    3 of 10 winners by a sire that'd won or placed in the 2000 Guineas
    6 of 10 winners by a sire who'd finished in the first 2 in the King George
    9 of 10 winners were born before 15th March (exception born on 6th April)
    Progeny of Montjeu (4-2-21) have won 4 of last 10 and the progeny of Galileo (2-4-21) have won 2 of last 10, both having had 21 representatives.

    Dosage Profile
    Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.05
    Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.21

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
    10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts
    10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that year
    10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that year
    7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
    10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ last time out (8 of 10 posted RPR of 118+)
    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
    5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions didn't run in a group 1 as a juvenile)
    9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
    9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in
    5 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (4 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
    8 of 9 winners that ran as 2yos had first run over 7F or 8F (7 of those 8 at a group 1 track)
    The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 36 times before winning the race. In those 36 starts they had finished outside the first 3 only twice, both occasions were on their racecourse debut as 2yo.

    2yo Form
    Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 61161 (3-0-5)
    Dewhurst winner (War Command): 110 (2-0-3)
    National Stakes winner (Toomore): 310 (1-1-3)
    Beresford Stakes winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 02014 (1-1-5)
    Darley EBF Maiden winner (Australia): 1 (1-0-1)
    1M Leopardstown Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 1 (1-0-1)
    Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 0P1 (1-0-3)
    Royal Lodge Stakes winner (Berkshire): 70 (0-0-2)
    Eyrefield Stakes winner (Mekond River): 06 (0-0-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 4 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh in July, finishing 14

    3yo Form
    Dante Stakes winner: 110120362 (3-3-9)
    2000 Guineas winner (Night Of Thunder): 110 (2-0-3)
    Record of horses who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 7011045 (2-0-7)
    Chester Vase winner (Orchestra): 60545025 (1-1-9)
    Prix Greffulhe winner (Prince Gibraltar): 51 (1-0-2)
    Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Fascinating Rock): 43032564 (0-3-8)
    Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Snow Sky): 40936702 (0-2-8)
    Ballysax Stakes winner (Fascinating Rock): 24 (0-1-2)
    Dee Stakes winners (Kingfisher): 50803 (0-1-5)
    Prix Francois Mathet winner (Norse Prize): 75 (0-0-2)
    Galinule Stakes winner: 04 (0-0-2)
    Feilden Stakes winner (True Story): 00 (0-0-2)
    Newmarket Stakes winner (Barley Mow): 800 (0-0-3)
    Fairway Stakes winner: 844 (0-0-3)
    Cocked Hat Stakes winner: 703 (0-0-3)
    Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Western Hymn): 400 (0-0-3)
    Investec Derby Trial winner (Our Channel): 0089 (0-0-4)
    4 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
    4 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 2211

    Trainers
    British-trained runners: 5-10-78
    Irish-trained runners: 4-9-49
    French-trained runners: 1-1-8
    German-trained: 0-0-1
    Aidan O’Brien (2-7-42) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but went 9 years without a win before landing the last 2 renewals with Camelot & Ruler Of The World.
    Michael Stoute (2-2-8) has won the race 3 times since 2002 and his first strings have a record that reads 2110212 (3-3-7) since 2000.
    Marcus Tregoning (1-1-5) saddled the winner in 2006 and third in 2007.
    John Oxx (1-0-1), Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2), Jim Bolger (1-0-3), Michael Bell (1-0-3) and Andre Fabre (1-0-4) are the 5 other trainers to have won the race in the past 10 years.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-5) gained his only win in the race with Lammtarra in 1995, 3 of his 5 runners since 2004 have been placed.
    John Gosden (0-0-6) last won this with Benny The Dip in 1997 but his last 6 runners have all been unplaced.
    Pour Moi in 2011 became first French-trained winner since 1976. In the past 50 years there have been 4 French-trained winners. 3 of the 4 ran in Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere as 2yos and all 4 had either won the Prix Gruffelhe or finished in first 4 in Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas).

    Racing Tactics
    7 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
    The other 3 winners all tracked the leader(s).

    Price
    10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 7/1 or below.
    Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of last 10 & show a small level stakes profit of 0.12 since 2004.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
    - Sons of Montjeu & Galileo do well
    - Born before 15/03/2011
    - Dosage index of around 1.05
    - Centre of Distribution of around 0.21
    - Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
    - Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)
    - Run once or twice in 2014
    - Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)
    - Had run in the past 35 days
    - Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
    - Posted an RPR of 112+ last time (ideally posted RPR of 118+ last time)
    - Previously won a group race
    - Had won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
    - Won over 7F+ as a 2yo
    - Won over 1M 2F as a 3yo (or won 2000 Guineas)
    - Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
    - Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as a 3yo
    - Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
    - Priced 7/1 or below.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    evilsatan (13th May 2014), neilb (12th May 2014) 


  2. #2
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    Default Re: EPSOM DERBY TRENDS 2014

    Does anyone here go? Really good day out, free entry to the hill and you can take as much of your own drink as you can carry. Just watch your belongings.


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