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    Default IRISH 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

    The Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh on Saturday 24th May. In recent times Aidan O’Brien has proven the only trainer capable of keeping the prize in Ireland, winning 9 of the last 17 runnings, with the other 8 going back across the Irish Sea to Great Britain. Excluding Aidan O’Brien, Vincent O’Brien in 1988 is the only other Irish-based trainer to have won the race in the past 25 years.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 7-15-59
    American bred: 2-2-16
    British bred: 1-2-19
    Galileo progeny: 629161 (2-1-6)
    Danehill Dancer progeny: 31832 (1-3-5)
    Oasis Dream progeny: 06312 (1-2-5)
    9 of 10 winners (last 7) were sired by a group 1 winner
    8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winners over 6F to 1M (2 exceptions by Galileo)

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo
    10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 7 career starts
    10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 113+ in last 2 starts
    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
    8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
    8 of 10 winners had won a group race (other 2 placed in group company)
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1 (6 won, exception yet to run in a group 1)
    5 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (4 of 5 exceptions were having their first course start & other was 2nd in group 1 here)

    2yo Races
    Coventry Stakes winner (War Command): 111 (3-0-3)
    Alfred Nobel EBF 2yo Maiden winner (Michaelmas): 11 (2-0-2)
    Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 225 (0-2-3)
    Dewhurst winner (War Command): 2 (0-1-1)
    Irish National Stud Famous Name EBF Maiden winner (War Command): 3 (0-1-1)
    Claregalwayhotel.ie (C & G) EBF Maiden winner (Mustajeeb): 30 (0-1-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 422
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 111
    3 of 10 winners ran in National Stakes, finishing 111
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 212
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersall Stakes, finishing 36

    3yo Races
    English 2000 Guineas winner: 211 (2-1-3)
    Record of horses that finished 2nd or 3rd in English 2000 Guineas: 2463281268 (1-3-10)
    Highest placed finisher from the 2000 Guineas: 2421181268 (3-3-10)
    Tetrarch Stakes winner (Alkasser): 43229 (0-3-5)
    Patton Stakes winner (Prince Of All): 2 (0-1-1)
    No Free Handicap winner has run in this in past 10 years, though in past 20 years the 3 Free Handicap winners to run in this have finished 1st-3rd-1st
    9 of 10 winners ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 754115300

    Trainers
    10 of 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain
    Aidan O’Brien (5-6-34) has won 5 of the last 10 however his runners have made up 36% of the total to go to post in the race in the past 10 years. Record of his first string is 5-2-10. 4 of 5 Aidan O’Brien-trained winners had won their maiden at Curragh as 2yos.
    British-trained runners (5-3-21) have won 5 of the past 10 runnings of this race.
    Richard Hannon yard (1-2-6) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 6 runners.
    Jim Bolger (0-5-7) has gained 5 places from 7 runners since 2004 but surprisingly he has never trained the winner of this race.

    Draw (excluding 2008 when there was only 5 runners)
    Bottom Half: 8-10-46
    Top Half: 1-8-43
    Only 1 winner in past 10 years has been drawn higher than stall 6.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
    Favourites (4-5-11) have won 4 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.37 over past 10 years.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sire won a group 1 over 6F to 8F (or by Galileo)
    - Had 4 to 7 career starts (1 or 2 runs in 2014)
    - Posted an RPR of 113+ in last 2 starts
    - Won first time out as a 2yo
    - Won over 7F to 1M
    - Previously won a group race
    - Finished in first 4 in a group 1
    - Finished in first 2 in Dewhurst, Coventry, National and/or Phoenix Stakes as 2yo
    - Ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out
    - Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Britain
    - Drawn in bottom half (ideally 6 or lower)
    - From first 4 in the betting.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (20th May 2014), neilb (20th May 2014) 


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