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    Default IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

    The Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 25th May. The English 1000 Guineas winner, Miss France, will not be looking to do the double but there is still a strong field of entries for this year’s race, including Lightning Thunder, runner-up from the Newmarket Guineas.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    Race for 3yo fillies

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 7-13-101
    British bred: 3-2-24
    American bred: 0-5-19
    German bred: 0-0-1
    9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
    7 of 10 winners were by a horse that never won over further than a mile (2 of 3 exceptions were by Galileo)
    Galileo progeny: 103074217 (2-2-9)
    Pivotal progeny: 7211700 (2-1-7)

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (3 others unplaced in French or English 1000 Guineas)
    9 of 10 winners had had at least 3 previous starts
    9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
    8 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
    10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
    7 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 of others 3 finished 3rd in a group 1)
    8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (2 exceptions yet to run in a group 1)

    2yo Races
    Rockfel Stakes winner (Al Thakhira): 510231 (2-2-6)
    Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Rizeena): 65191 (2-0-5)
    Queen Mary Stakes winner (Rizeena): 19 (1-0-2)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Avenue Gabrial): 03 (0-1-2)
    Silver Flash Stakes winner (Wonderfully): 5920 (0-1-4)
    Flame Of Tara Stakes winner (Avenue Gabrial): 7 (0-0-1)
    Fast Company European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden winner (Vote Often): 06 (0-0-2)
    Dragon Pulse EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Heart Focus): 80 (0-0-2)
    C. L. Weld Park Stakes winner (My Titania): 09008507 (0-0-8)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 101
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 311
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Debutante Stakes, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Weld Park Stakes, finishing 27
    2 of 3 British-trained winners won a group race at Royal Ascot (Queeny Mary & Albany)

    3yo Races
    English 1000 Guineas winner: 1814 (2-0-4)
    Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 1000 Guineas: 50660500021 (1-1-11)
    Highest placed finisher from 1000 Guineas: 0218615002 (2-2-10)
    Park Express Stakes winner (Vote Often): 232 (0-3-3)
    5 of 10 winners ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 16102
    3 of 10 winners ran in the French 1000 Guineas last time out, finishing 239

    Trainers
    Aidan O’Brien (2-5-36) has won 2 of the last 10 however he has sent out 36 runners in the race in the past 10 years (approximately 24.8% of total runners). His first strings have a poor record of 0-2-10.
    Dermot Weld (2-2-13) has won the race twice in past 8 years. Both his winners were unplaced in a Curragh maiden on their one run at 2. Both won their previous start and bypassed the French and English 1000 Guineas to run in this (2 of the only 3 winners since 2003 to do so).
    Jim Bolger (1-4-15) has saddled the winner and 4 places since 2004.
    Ralph Beckett’s (0-1-1) one runner was a short head 2nd in 2005.
    Clive Brittain (0-0-1) trained Crimplene to win this in 2000.
    British-trained runners (3-4-29) have won 3 of last 10 from 20% of the total runners.

    Draw
    horses drawn 1 to 4: 4-9-40
    horses drawn 5 to 8: 1-7-40
    horses drawn 9 to 12: 3-2-35
    horses drawn 13 or higher: 2-2-30
    No very strong trend on the draw, though horses drawn in stall 1 have done well.
    Since 2000, the record of horses drawn in stall 1: 243151122d40820 (3-4-14)

    Racing Tactics
    8 of 10 winners raced prominently (in first 6) throughout
    The 2 winners to come further back both did so from a double-figure stall in a field of 16+.

    Price
    6 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
    No very strong trend on prices, with 6 winners going off shorter than 7/1 and the other 4 going between 10/1 & 16/1.
    Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 1.40 since 2004.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M or shorter (or by Galileo)
    - Fillies sired by Pivotal & Galileo do particularly well
    - Run once or twice in 2014
    - Had last start in past 21 days
    - Won over 7F or further
    - Won a listed or group race
    - Won or placed in a group 1
    - First 3 in Marcel Boussac, Debutante, Rockfel and/or Moyglare Stud Stakes as 2yo
    - Ran in English or French 1000 Guineas last time (or from Weld stable)
    - Trained by Dermot Weld or in Great Britain
    - Tends to race prominently.

    4 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (21st May 2014), chesser (21st May 2014), ilscuro (21st May 2014), neilb (21st May 2014) 


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