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    Default TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP TRENDS 2014

    The Tattersalls Gold Cup takes place on the undercard of the Curragh’s 1000 Guineas day on Sunday 25th May. It’s a group 1 race run over 1M 2½F and has been won by some top class horses since the start of the turn of the millennium, including Montjeu, Fantastic Light, Hurricane Run and So You Think.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    4yo: 6-6-29
    5yo: 3-0-13
    6yo: 1-1-9
    7yo+: 0-2-4
    No strong trends on the ages.

    Gender
    The 10 mares to run in this race have finished: 2286233444 (0-2-10)

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 114+ last time
    10 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F+
    10 of 10 winners had won a Group 1 or 2
    7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had been 2nd in a group 1 & other had yet to run in a group 1)
    10 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that season
    6 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (2 exceptions having first course start & other 2 had finished in the first 3 in a group 1 here)
    10 of 10 winners were officially rated 116 or higher

    Other Races
    Previous season's Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 11212 (3-1-5)
    Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Magician): 3112 (2-0-4)
    Gordon Richards Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 1 (1-0-1)
    Previous season's Brigadier Gerrard Stakes winner (Mukhadram): 1 (1-0-1)
    Trigo Stakes winner (Euphrasia): 2723 (0-2-4)
    Previous season's Epsom Derby winner (Ruler Of The World): 2 (0-0-1)
    5 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in the previous season's Irish Derby, finishing 61121
    2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in the previous season's Epsom Derby, finishing 32
    4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Arc, finishing 0164
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 4221
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Champion Stakes, finishing 862
    2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes last time, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International Stakes, finishing 14
    2 of 10 winners ran in Prince Of Wales' Stakes, finishing 52
    2 of 10 winners ran in Eclipse Stakes, finishing 21
    2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in Gordon Richards Stakes last time, finishing 41

    Trainers
    Aidan O’Brien (5-1-15) has won 6 of the last 11 runnings of this race.
    Dermot Weld (2-2-7) trained the winner in 2005, saddled the first two home in 2009 and also saddled the runner-up in 2012.
    British-trained runners (2-2-11) have won just 2 of last 10 from 20% of total runners.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter
    Nine runners has been the biggest field for this race since 2004 so it’s no surprise that all winners have been short enough in the betting.
    Favourites (5-4-10) have won 5 of the last 10 however 4 of the 9 odds-on favourites to run in this have been turned over in the past 10 years. Favourites show a level stakes loss of 3.57 over past 10 years.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Fillies & mares have a poor record
    - Had no more than 2 runs in 2014
    - Posted an RPR of 114+ last time out
    - Won over 1M 2F or further
    - Won a group 1 or 2 (ideally a group 1)
    - Course winner (or having first start here)
    - Officially rated 116+
    - Ran in the Irish, Epsom and/or French Derby’s last season
    - Ran in last season’s Arc, Champion Stakes and/or Irish Champion Stakes
    - If run this season, finished in first 2 in Mooresbridge, Gordon Richards or Prix Ganay last time
    - Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Dermot Weld
    - Priced 7/1 or below.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (21st May 2014), neilb (21st May 2014) 


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