Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,945
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked:        1,657
    Karma Level
    319

    Default PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB TRENDS 2014

    The Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) takes place at Chantilly on Sunday 1st June. Formerly run over the 1M 4F trip, the distance of the race was shortened to 1M 2½F in 2005. The fact the race is run so close to the Epsom Derby (6 days before) means the contingent from the Britain and Ireland is generally not that strong and the home team have won 9 of last 10 runnings.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding


    French bred: 5-8-65
    Irish bred: 2-4-59
    British bred: 1-5-34
    German bred: 1-1-5
    American bred: 1-1-17
    UAE bred: 0-0-1
    10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner


    9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that had won a group 1 over 1M to 1M 4F
    10 of 10 winners were born before 21st April
    6 of 10 winners (last 6) were by a sire that finished 1st or 2nd in French 2000 Guineas, French Derby or Irish Derby

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had had at least 4 career starts (exception was unbeaten in 2 runs)
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
    6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed in French 2000)
    10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days
    7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
    4 of 10 winners had won at Chantilly (other 6 were having their first course start)
    5 of 10 winners ran in Longchamp group or listed race last time
    4 of 10 winners ran at Chantilly last time

    Other Races


    French 2000 Guineas winner (Karakontie): 17615 (2-0-5)
    Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the French 2000 Guineas: 4310001 (2-1-7)
    Prix Policeman winner (Mr Pommeroy): 01 (1-0-2)
    Prix Hocquart winner (Free Port Lux): 6250065 (0-2-7)
    Criterium de Saint Cloud winner (Prince Gibraltar): 02 (0-1-2)
    Criterium de Lyon winner (Prestige Vendome): 20 (0-1-2)
    Prix de Belleville winner (Free Port Lux): 28 (0-1-2)
    Prix Tourbillon winner (Nolohay): 7 (0-0-1)
    Dante Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 0 (0-0-1)
    Prix La Rochette winner (Karakontie): 00 (0-0-2)
    Prix de Champerret winner (Gonna Run): 76 (0-0-2)
    Prix Thomas Bryon winner (Earnshaw): 006 (0-0-3)
    Prix Greffulhe winner (Prince Gibraltar): 00874 (0-0-5)
    4 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 1213
    2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Greffulhe, finishing 44
    2 of 10 winners ran in Prix de Fontainebleau, finishing 43

    Trainers


    French-trained runners: 9-17-129
    British-trained runners: 1-1-23
    Irish-trained runners: 0-2-20
    Rest Of Europe: 0-0-9


    Andre Fabre (2-4-20) trained the winner in 2010, the 2nd in 2012 and the 1st & 3rd in 2013. Both his winners finished in first 3 in French 2000 Guineas last time out.
    Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-1-9) has trained the winner 3 times in past 11 years, most recently in 2011 with Reliable Man.
    Jean-Claude Rouget (1-3-14) trained the winner in 2009 and also saddled 3rd in 2010, 4th in 2011 & 2nd in 2013.

    Draw (only counting 2005 to 2013)
    When looking at the draw we’ll focus on 9 runnings over current 1M 2½F trip:
    horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-8-45
    horses drawn 6 to 10: 3-3-45
    horses drawn 11 to 15: 1-5-45
    horses drawn 16 or higher: 2-2-31
    No very strong trends on the draw.

    Price


    7 of 10 winners have gone off 11/1 or bigger
    Longer priced runners have done well in this.
    Favourites (2-1-12) have won just 2 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 4.62 over past 10 years.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M to 1M 4F
    - Had had at least 4 career starts (& run 2 to 4 times in 2014)
    - Won last time out (or finish in first 4 in a group 1 or 2)
    - Ran at Longchamp or Chantilly on latest start
    - Had run in the past 40 days
    - Course winner (or having first run at Chantilly)
    - Won over 1M+
    - Won a group or listed race
    - Finished in first 3 in French 2000 Guineas
    - Finished in first 4 in the Prix Greffulhe and/or Fontainebleau
    - Trained in France (especially by Alain de Royer-Dupre, Andre Fabre or Jean-Claude Rouget)

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (28th May 2014), neilb (28th May 2014) 


Similar Threads

  1. PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB TRENDS 2015
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 28th May 2015, 09:21 PM
  2. PRIX DE LA FORET TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 29th September 2014, 10:23 PM
  3. PRIX VERMEILLE TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11th September 2014, 12:19 PM
  4. PRIX DU MOULIN TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11th September 2014, 11:32 AM
  5. PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB TRENDS 2012
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 30th May 2012, 01:08 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •