PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB TRENDS 2014

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The Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) takes place at Chantilly on Sunday 1st June. Formerly run over the 1M 4F trip, the distance of the race was shortened to 1M 2½F in 2005. The fact the race is run so close to the Epsom Derby (6 days before) means the contingent from the Britain and Ireland is generally not that strong and the home team have won 9 of last 10 runnings.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


French bred: 5-8-65
Irish bred: 2-4-59
British bred: 1-5-34
German bred: 1-1-5
American bred: 1-1-17
UAE bred: 0-0-1
10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner


9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that had won a group 1 over 1M to 1M 4F
10 of 10 winners were born before 21st April
6 of 10 winners (last 6) were by a sire that finished 1st or 2nd in French 2000 Guineas, French Derby or Irish Derby

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had had at least 4 career starts (exception was unbeaten in 2 runs)
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed in French 2000)
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
4 of 10 winners had won at Chantilly (other 6 were having their first course start)
5 of 10 winners ran in Longchamp group or listed race last time
4 of 10 winners ran at Chantilly last time

Other Races


French 2000 Guineas winner (Karakontie): 17615 (2-0-5)
Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the French 2000 Guineas: 4310001 (2-1-7)
Prix Policeman winner (Mr Pommeroy): 01 (1-0-2)
Prix Hocquart winner (Free Port Lux): 6250065 (0-2-7)
Criterium de Saint Cloud winner (Prince Gibraltar): 02 (0-1-2)
Criterium de Lyon winner (Prestige Vendome): 20 (0-1-2)
Prix de Belleville winner (Free Port Lux): 28 (0-1-2)
Prix Tourbillon winner (Nolohay): 7 (0-0-1)
Dante Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 0 (0-0-1)
Prix La Rochette winner (Karakontie): 00 (0-0-2)
Prix de Champerret winner (Gonna Run): 76 (0-0-2)
Prix Thomas Bryon winner (Earnshaw): 006 (0-0-3)
Prix Greffulhe winner (Prince Gibraltar): 00874 (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 1213
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Greffulhe, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix de Fontainebleau, finishing 43

Trainers


French-trained runners: 9-17-129
British-trained runners: 1-1-23
Irish-trained runners: 0-2-20
Rest Of Europe: 0-0-9


Andre Fabre (2-4-20) trained the winner in 2010, the 2nd in 2012 and the 1st & 3rd in 2013. Both his winners finished in first 3 in French 2000 Guineas last time out.
Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-1-9) has trained the winner 3 times in past 11 years, most recently in 2011 with Reliable Man.
Jean-Claude Rouget (1-3-14) trained the winner in 2009 and also saddled 3rd in 2010, 4th in 2011 & 2nd in 2013.

Draw (only counting 2005 to 2013)
When looking at the draw we’ll focus on 9 runnings over current 1M 2½F trip:
horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-8-45
horses drawn 6 to 10: 3-3-45
horses drawn 11 to 15: 1-5-45
horses drawn 16 or higher: 2-2-31
No very strong trends on the draw.

Price


7 of 10 winners have gone off 11/1 or bigger
Longer priced runners have done well in this.
Favourites (2-1-12) have won just 2 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 4.62 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M to 1M 4F
- Had had at least 4 career starts (& run 2 to 4 times in 2014)
- Won last time out (or finish in first 4 in a group 1 or 2)
- Ran at Longchamp or Chantilly on latest start
- Had run in the past 40 days
- Course winner (or having first run at Chantilly)
- Won over 1M+
- Won a group or listed race
- Finished in first 3 in French 2000 Guineas
- Finished in first 4 in the Prix Greffulhe and/or Fontainebleau
- Trained in France (especially by Alain de Royer-Dupre, Andre Fabre or Jean-Claude Rouget)