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    Default EPSOM OAKS TRENDS 2014

    The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 6th June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in past 6 years with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008 and the last 3 winners going off at 20/1.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding


    British bred: 5-10-53
    Irish bred: 4-6-51
    American bred: 1-3-12
    Other: 0-0-3
    10 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner
    Pivotal progeny: 0133 (1-2-4)

    Dosage Profile


    Composite Dosage profile: 5-3.2-14.6-3.8-1.8
    Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.20
    Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.20

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
    10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season


    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
    10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time
    6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial)
    9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time out


    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
    6 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (1 exception finished 2nd in a group 1 & other 3 were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)

    2yo Form


    Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Maiden Fillies' winner (Taghrooda): 126 (1-1-3)
    pioneerfurniture.co.uk Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturers EBF Maiden winner (Regardez): 3 (0-1-1)
    Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 4 (0-0-1)
    May Hill Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 64 (0-0-2)
    Silver Flash Stakes winner (Wonderfully): 505 (0-0-3)
    Debutante Stakes winner (Tapestry): 455 (0-0-3)

    3yo Form


    Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Inchila): 154147 (2-0-6)
    Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Taghrooda): 1000071 (2-0-7)
    Musidora Stakes winner (Madame Chiang: 33851635 (1-3-8)
    Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Marsh Daisy): 227166 (1-2-6)
    Newbury Fillies Trial winner (Volume): 1043 (1-1-4)
    Cheshire Oaks winner (Anipa): 6100527 (1-1-7)
    Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Honor Bound): 7902942 (0-2-7)
    Salsabil Stakes winner (Dazzling): 257 (0-1-3)
    Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Bracelet): 4 (0-0-1)
    Blue Wind Stakes winner (Tarfasha): 405 (0-0-3)
    Breeders Backing Racing E B F Maiden Fillies' winner (Madame Chiang): 770 (0-0-3)
    2 of 10 winners ran in Pretty Polly Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

    Trainers


    Aidan O’Brien (2-6-34) has won the race twice in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 28.6% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-4-10.
    Ralph Beckett (2-1-6) trained winner in 2008 and also saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
    Ed Dunlop (2-0-3) trained the winner in 2004 & 2010 from just 3 runners in past 10 renewals.
    John Gosden (0-2-6) has saddled a placed finisher in 2 of last 3 runnings.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-4) trained the winner in 1995 & 2002 but his 4 runners in last 10 years have all been unplaced.
    Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-8-41, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-7.



    Price


    The recent trend has been towards longer priced winners, with 4 of last 6 (including last 3) going off at 20/1 or bigger.
    Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.62 since 2004.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2 (Pivotal fillies do well)
    - Dosage Index of around 1.20
    - Centre of Distribution of around 0.20
    - Had 1 or 2 runs this year
    - Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR last time
    - Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
    - Won over 1M+
    - Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
    - Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
    - Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial this year
    - Trained by Ed Dunlop, Aidan O’Brien or Ralph Beckett.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (2nd June 2014) 


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