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  1. #1
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    Default EPSOM DASH TRENDS 2014

    The Investec Specialist Bank "Dash" is a class 2 handicap run over 5 furlongs, which takes place on the undercard of the Derby Day at Epsom on Saturday 7th June. Dandy Nicholls and Stuart Williams have accounted for 6 of the last 12 winners and both have entries in this year’s race.






    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 0-1-9
    4yo: 3-9-50
    5yo: 1-10-35
    6yo: 5-5-41
    7yo: 0-1-24
    8yo+: 1-4-28
    9 of 10 winners were aged 4 to 6, though they have represented around 67.4% of total runners.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-3-16
    horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-10-58
    horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-12-70
    horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-5-43
    No very strong trend on the weights.
    horses carrying a penalty: 0-4-17
    Top weight: 07375095190 (1-1-10)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 100 or higher: 2-6-28
    horses rated 90 to 99: 5-14-92
    horses rated 89 or lower: 3-10-67
    The last 3 winners were all rated 93 or higher.

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season (exception having first run of year)
    8 of 10 winners had run in past 4 weeks
    7 of 10 winners had run in at least 15 handicaps
    9 of 10 winners had won at least 2 handicaps
    10 of 10 winners had won over 5F
    8 of 10 winners had won over 6F
    8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K+
    6 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions had finished close 2nd in a race worth 29K+)
    8 of 10 winners had contested a listed or group race



    Other Races


    Record of first 5 from Stellar Group Handicap: 0061851933821057 (3-3-16)
    Gosforth Park Cup winner (Magical Macey): 01 (1-0-2)
    SIS Sprint Handicap winner (Barnet Fair): 70480 (0-1-5)
    Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes winner (Monsieur Joe): 00 (0-0-2)
    Investec Investment & Wealth Handicap winner (Caspian Prince): 00790 (0-0-5)
    Great Surrey Handicap winner (Swan Song): 60070 (0-0-5)
    3 of 10 winners ran in Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap, finishing 733
    3 of 10 winners ran in Chester Stellar Group Handicap, finishing 152
    3 of 10 winners ran in Betfred Supports Jack Berry House H'cap, finishing 830
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 000
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's King George Stakes, finishing 070
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Coral Sprint Trophy, finishing 00
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's City Wall Stakes, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Wokingham H'cap, finishing 00

    Trainers


    Dandy Nicholls (2-4-37) has won 4 of the last 12 runnings, all 4 of those winners were aged 6 or older.
    Stuart Williams (2-2-7) has a fine record in this race, gaining 2 wins (33/1 & 7/1) and 2 places (20/1 & 9/2) from 7 runners in the past 10 years.
    Andrew Balding (1-2-9) has saddled the winner and a couple of placed finishers since 2004.
    John Best (1-0-1) trained Stone Of Folca to win this in 2012 at 50/1 and Kevin Ryan (1-0-16) won it in 2006.
    Bryan Smart (0-2-5) & Simon Dow (0-2-5) has both saddled 2 placed finishers in last 10 years.
    David O’Meara (0-1-1), Peter Crate (0-1-2) & Ronald Harris (0-1-4) have all filled 1 place in past 4 runnings.

    Draw
    horses draw 1 to 7: 1-10-70
    horses draw 8 to 14: 4-11-70
    horses drawn 15 to 20: 5-9-47
    9 of 10 winners were drawn 8 or higher
    The only horse drawn lower than 8 to take this in past 10 years was shock winner Stone Of Folca at 50/1 in 2012.

    Price


    7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 14/1
    No very strong trends on prices, though this is a race where we’ve seen a few upsets in recent years, with a 33/1 winner in 2010 and a 50/1 victor in 2012.
    The favourite (1-3-14) won this last year, though that was the first winning favourite since 2001. In past 10 years they show a level stakes loss of 4.00.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 4 to 6
    - Run 1 to 4 times this season
    - Had last run in past 28 days
    - Won over 5F and 6F
    - Won at class 2 or higher (worth 9K+)
    - Has run in a group or listed race
    - Finished in first 3 in Investec Investment & Wealth Handicap
    - Finished in first 5 in Betfred Mobile Sprint and/or Stellar Group H'cap
    - Ran in 2013 Ayr Gold Cup and/or King George Stakes
    - Drawn 8 or higher (ideally 15 or higher)
    - Trained by Dandy Nicholls or Stuart Williams.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (3rd June 2014), neilb (3rd June 2014) 


  2. #2
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    Default Re: EPSOM DASH TRENDS 2014

    I went to the derby last year (the free public enclosure) and it was awesome, been looking forward to it all day but looks like the weather is going to be shocking so probably won't bother. Shame as the atmosphere in that enclosure is buzzing.


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