Royal ascot day 2 trends - 18/6/2014

[ganjaman2]

PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES TRENDS 2014




The solitary Group 1 race on Day 2 of the Royal Ascot Festival is the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, run over a mile and a quarter for 4yos and upwards. Some of the best middle distance horses of recent times have won this have won this including Fantastic Light, Azamour, Rakti, Ouija Board and So You Think.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 5-12-49
5yo: 4-4-31
6yo+: 1-1-12
9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 although they have accounted for 81 of the 91 runners.
4 of 5 winners aged 5+ had run in previous year’s race, finishing 42732.
Muhtarram in 1996 & So You Think in 2012 have been the only 2 horses aged over 5 to win this race in past 30 years, Muhtarram had won it the previous year & So You Think had been close 2nd in 2011.

Gender


Fillies & mares (1-1-4) have gained 1 win and 1 places from their 4 runners in this race in the past 10 years.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ last time (9 posted RPR of 121+)
10 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 over 1M1F to 1M 4F last time
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (exception had won group 2 and was 2nd in group 1 on last start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 1 to 3 times that year (finishing in first 4 on all starts)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
3 of 10 winners made their seasonal debut at the Dubai Carnival
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) had run in a Longchamp group 1 that year

Other Races (previous season)


Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Fugue): 121 (2-1-3)
Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 24 (0-1-2)
Breeders Cup Turf winner (Magician): 4 (0-0-1)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner (Dank): 7 (0-0-1)
4 of 5 winners aged 5+ ran in previous season's Prince Of Wales, finishing 2732
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 132
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's English 2000 Guineas, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's International Stakes, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe, finishing 54

Other Races (that season)


Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Magician): 024 (0-1-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, finishing 4111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ispahan last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Ganay, finishing 11

Trainers


British trained runners: 4-11-63
Irish trained: 2217201620104 (3-4-13) – 4 of 6 unplaced were O'Brien pacemakers
French trained: 463173181446 (3-1-12)
Other: 0-0-6
Irish and French trained runners have a combined record of 6-5-25, which compares well to British based runners’ record of 4-11-63.
Aidan O’Brien (2-4-12) has trained 2 winners & 4 placed finishers from 12 runners since 2004, and his record with his first string is 2-4-8.
John Gosden (0-4-8) has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the places in past 10 runnings.
Michael Stoute (0-2-7) has filled a couple of places since 2004 while William Haggas (0-1-1) saddle the runner-up last year.

Price


10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with only 4 horses priced above 8/1 making the places in the past 10 years.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 8 & show a level stakes profit of 2.55 over past 10 years.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 (or a 5yo that ran in this race last year)
- Run 1 to 3 times in 2014 (never worse than 4th)
- Finished in first 3 in group 1 over 1M 1F+ last time
- Posted an RPR of 121+ last time in a group 1 over 1M 1F+
- Has won over 1M 2F or further
- Has won a group 1
- Finished in first 3 in Irish and/or English Champion Stakes in 2013
- Ran in a group 1 at Longchamp or Meydan in 2014
- First 3 in the Tattersalls Gold Cup or Prix D’Ispahan last time
- From the first 4 in the betting
- Trained in France or Ireland.

[ganjaman2]

ROYAL HUNT CUP TRENDS 2014




The Royal Hunt Cup is the highlight of day 2 of Royal Ascot. It’s a handicap run over a mile for 3yos and upwards and the field often consists of over 30 runners so it’s no mean feat finding the winner, though there are some strong trends to guide you in your search.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 5-12-117
5yo: 3-10-69
6yo: 2-4-44
7yo+: 0-4-48
10 of 10 winners were aged 4 to 6


No horses aged older than 6 has won this in the past 30 years. 2 of the 4 horses aged 7+ to make the frame ran in Zetland Gold Cup last time (both finished in first 6)

Weight


horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-4-26
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 6-8-78
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-11-117
horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-7-57
10 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-5
horses carrying a penalty: 00040402500820 (0-4-14)
Top Weight: 00030978050 (0-1-11)

Official Ratings


horses rated 100 or more: 5-10-85
horses rated 90 to 99: 5-18-171
horses rated 89 or less: 0-2-22
Last 9 winners were officially rated between 93 and 102



Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 in one of last two starts


7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on at least one start that season
8 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days
10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 99+ in 1 of last 3 starts
8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better (2 exceptions placed in a class 2)
10 of 10 winners had won over a mile
6 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps (2 exceptions had won a class 2 handicap worth 39K+)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Belgian Bill): 030 (0-1-3)
Epsom Investec Mile winner (Abseil): 042 (0-2-3)
Paradise Stakes winner (Ocean Tempest): 2 (0-1-1)
Suffolk Stakes winner (Niceofyoutotellme): 4 (0-1-1)
Thirsk hunt Cup winner (Fort Bastion): 2600 (0-1-4)
Arkle Finance Handicap winner (Mabait): 0520 (0-1-4)
Lincoln winner (Ocean Tempest): 00 (0-0-2)
Bunbury Cup winner (Field Of Dream): 80 (0-0-2)
Coral Challenge winner (Prince Of Johanne): 097 (0-0-3)
Spring Cup winner (Gabrial's Kaka): 0700 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 620
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 347
2 of 10 winners ran in Hambleton Stakes last time, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Whitsun Cup last time, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup last time, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lincoln, finishing 20
2 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in Deloitte 3yo Handicap at Ascot in July, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Betfred Mile, finishing 38

Trainers


James Fanshawe (1-3-5) has saddled 2 winners and 3 places from 6 runners since 2003.
George Baker (1-0-2), Tom Tate (1-0-3), Clive Cox (1-0-6), the Richard Hannon yard (1-0-6) and Jeremy Noseda (1-0-10) have all provided 1 winner in the past 10 years.
Dandy Nicholls (0-3-10) & Jamie Osbourne (0-2-4) have both gained multiple places in past 10 years.
Brian Ellison (0-1-1), John Hammond (0-1-1) & Ed Vaughan (0-1-1) have all seen their one runner in this in past 10 years get placed.
None of the 13 Irish-based runners (0-0-13) have made the frame in this.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)


horses drawn 1 to 10: 1-10-90
horses drawn 11 to 19: 2-5-80
horses drawn 20 or higher: 6-12-86
Higher draws have had much the better of it recently, with 7 of last 10 winners at Ascot coming from stall 20 or higher.

Price


No strong trends on the prices. Prior to 2009 there had been no winning favourite since 1996.
Favourites (1-2-13) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 11 runners (level stakes loss of 5.00 over the past 10 years).



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 to 6
- Carrying 8-8 to 9-5
- Officially rated between 93 and 102
- Won over a mile
- Ran in last 45 days
- Finished in the first 2 at least once this season
- Posted an RPR of 99+ in last 3 starts
- Has won at class 3 or higher
- Placed in class 2 handicap or better
- Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning 3 or less) or won a handicap worth 40K+
- Finished in first 6 in Spring Cup, Whitsun Cup, Victoria Cup and/or Hambleton Stakes
- Finished in first 5 in Deloitte H’cap and/or Buckingham Palace in 2013
- Trained in Britain (especially by James Fanshawe)
- Drawn 20 or higher.