QUEEN ANNE STAKES TRENDS 2014
The 2014 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 17th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick off what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The Lockinge Stakes has proven the key trial for this, with 7 of last 10 winners coming straight from that race to land the Queen Anne.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 7-8-54
5yo: 3-6-30
6yo+: 0-4-18
10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
4yos have held a slight edge over 5 year olds in past 10 runnings. You have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.
Gender
In 2010 Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971
Ten fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 7624732124 (1-4-10).
8 of the 10 female runners were sent off at less than 8/1 (5 were favourite)
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception had finished 2nd in previous year's St James Palace Stakes)
10 of 10 winners had had 7 to 17 career starts
9 of 10 winners had won a Group 1
9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (exception had run 3 times)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 115+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
Other Races
Record of horse who ran in the race the previous season: 5007472322 (0-4-12), won/placed runners returning 522 (0-2-3)
Lockinge winner (Olympic Glory): 247211 (2-2-6)
Previous season's Greenham Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 11 (2-0-2)
Sussex Stakes winner (Toronado): 3611 (2-0-4)
Bet365 Mile winner (Tullius): 002120 (1-2-6)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Gregorian): 12 (1-1-2)
QEII Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 2461 (1-1-4)
Previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Magician): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's 1000 Guineas winner (Sky Lantern): 3 (0-1-1)
Thoroughbred Stakes winner (Montiridge): 40 (0-0-2)
Joel Stakes winner (Soft Falling Rain): 38 (0-0-2)
Criterion Stakes winner (Producer): 56 (0-0-2)
Previous year's Craven Stakes winner (Toronado): 00 (0-0-2)
Record of horses that ran in the Lockinge that season: 7-8-37
Record of horses that did not run in the Lockinge: 3-10-65
7 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time out, finishing 8264115
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in previous year's Greenham Stakes, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's 2000 Guineas, finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Sussex Stakes, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's BC Mile, finishing 901
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Prix de la Foret, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in that season's Dubai Duty Free, finishing 88
Trainers
British trained runners: 5-13-72
Irish trained runners: 3-2-12 (all 3 winners trained by A O’Brien)
French trained runners: 2-3-12
Any other: 0-0-6
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-10) has trained 3 of last 8 winners.
The Richard Hannon stable (2-1-6) were responsible for the winner in 2009 & 2011.
Andrew Balding (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the places at odds of 50/1 & 33/1.
John Gosden (0-1-2) saddled the 3rd and 4th home in 2013.
Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 4-10-27
horses drawn in middle: 2-7-38
horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 3-1-27
Since 2000, 11 of 13 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls.
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) went off 15/2 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with last 9 winners going off at single figure odds, however the favourite has won just twice in last 10 years.
Favourites (2-3-10) have gained just 2 wins and 3 places since 2004, giving a level stakes profit of 6.52. 3 of last 4 odds on favourites have been defeated.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 or 5
- Won over 1M to 1M 1F
- Won a group 1
- Had 1 or 2 previous runs in 2014
- Has run in the past 40 days
- Ran in the Lockinge last time out (or won Prix D’Isphahan)
- First 3 in Prix de la Foret, 2000 Guineas and/or Sussex Stakes in 2013
- First 2 in Greenham and/or St James’ Palace in 2013
- Trained by Richard Hannon or Aidan O’Brien
- Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls
- Price less than 8/1.
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