Royal Ascot trends day 1 - 17/6/2014

[ganjaman2]

QUEEN ANNE STAKES TRENDS 2014




The 2014 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 17th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick off what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The Lockinge Stakes has proven the key trial for this, with 7 of last 10 winners coming straight from that race to land the Queen Anne.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 7-8-54
5yo: 3-6-30
6yo+: 0-4-18
10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
4yos have held a slight edge over 5 year olds in past 10 runnings. You have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.

Gender


In 2010 Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971
Ten fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 7624732124 (1-4-10).
8 of the 10 female runners were sent off at less than 8/1 (5 were favourite)

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception had finished 2nd in previous year's St James Palace Stakes)
10 of 10 winners had had 7 to 17 career starts
9 of 10 winners had won a Group 1
9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (exception had run 3 times)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 115+ last time


9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

Other Races


Record of horse who ran in the race the previous season: 5007472322 (0-4-12), won/placed runners returning 522 (0-2-3)
Lockinge winner (Olympic Glory): 247211 (2-2-6)
Previous season's Greenham Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 11 (2-0-2)
Sussex Stakes winner (Toronado): 3611 (2-0-4)
Bet365 Mile winner (Tullius): 002120 (1-2-6)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Gregorian): 12 (1-1-2)
QEII Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 2461 (1-1-4)
Previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Magician): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's 1000 Guineas winner (Sky Lantern): 3 (0-1-1)
Thoroughbred Stakes winner (Montiridge): 40 (0-0-2)
Joel Stakes winner (Soft Falling Rain): 38 (0-0-2)
Criterion Stakes winner (Producer): 56 (0-0-2)
Previous year's Craven Stakes winner (Toronado): 00 (0-0-2)
Record of horses that ran in the Lockinge that season: 7-8-37
Record of horses that did not run in the Lockinge: 3-10-65
7 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time out, finishing 8264115
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in previous year's Greenham Stakes, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's 2000 Guineas, finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Sussex Stakes, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's BC Mile, finishing 901
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Prix de la Foret, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in that season's Dubai Duty Free, finishing 88

Trainers


British trained runners: 5-13-72
Irish trained runners: 3-2-12 (all 3 winners trained by A O’Brien)
French trained runners: 2-3-12
Any other: 0-0-6
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-10) has trained 3 of last 8 winners.
The Richard Hannon stable (2-1-6) were responsible for the winner in 2009 & 2011.
Andrew Balding (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the places at odds of 50/1 & 33/1.
John Gosden (0-1-2) saddled the 3rd and 4th home in 2013.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 4-10-27
horses drawn in middle: 2-7-38
horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 3-1-27
Since 2000, 11 of 13 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls.



Price


9 of 10 winners (last 9) went off 15/2 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with last 9 winners going off at single figure odds, however the favourite has won just twice in last 10 years.
Favourites (2-3-10) have gained just 2 wins and 3 places since 2004, giving a level stakes profit of 6.52. 3 of last 4 odds on favourites have been defeated.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 or 5
- Won over 1M to 1M 1F
- Won a group 1
- Had 1 or 2 previous runs in 2014
- Has run in the past 40 days
- Ran in the Lockinge last time out (or won Prix D’Isphahan)
- First 3 in Prix de la Foret, 2000 Guineas and/or Sussex Stakes in 2013
- First 2 in Greenham and/or St James’ Palace in 2013
- Trained by Richard Hannon or Aidan O’Brien
- Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls
- Price less than 8/1.

[ganjaman2]

KING'S STAND STAKES TRENDS 2014




The King’s Stand Stakes is the second race of day 1 of the Royal Ascot meeting. Run over 5 furlongs, it was promoted to a group 1 class in 2008. In the past 10 years, overseas runners have done really well, with 6 of the last 10 winners being trained outside of Britain and Ireland.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-2-32
4yo: 1-6-46
5yo: 2-5-34
6yo: 4-4-33
7yo: 2-1-22
8yo+: 0-2-16
horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 2-8-78
horses aged 5 or older have a record of 8-12-105
The two 3yo winners since 2000 had both won or placed in a group race as 2yos.
No horse aged over 7 has won this in past 40 years.

Gender
Fillies & mares (1-5-31) have won 1 of last 10 from approximately 16.9% of total runners.

Breeding
Australian bred: 3-3-13
French bred: 3-0-7
GB bred: 2-9-81
Irish bred: 1-6-62
New Zealand bred: 1-0-5
South African bred: 0-2-4
American bred: 0-0-11
horses bred in Australia & New Zealand: 4-3-18
horse bred in GB & Ireland: 3-15-143
3 of 7 French bred horses to run in this have been successful, though Equiano accounted for 2 of those wins.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that year
9 of 10 winners had won a race that year
8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time out (2 exceptions finished 4th in group 2)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 116+ last time (2 others had done so in past 3 starts)
10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 116+ earlier that year
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was a listed winner and other had twice been placed in a group 2)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 sprint (3 others finished in first 6 in a group 1 sprint the previous season and other 2 had not run in a group 1 sprint prior to this)
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F
9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception runner-up in a 5F group 2)
2 of 3 British-trained winners had won at Ascot (other was placed in a group 2 and Wokingham here)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Sole Power): 7480 (0-0-4)
Palace House Stakes winner (Sole Power): 3400101 (2-1-7)
Scarborough Stakes winner (Justineo): 00011 (2-0-5)
Shergar Cup Dash winner (Ahtoug): 1 (1-0-1)
Abernant Stakes winner (Hamza): 01 (1-0-2)
Previous season's King George Stakes winner (Moviesta): 1006 (1-0-4)
Temple Stakes winner (Hot Streak): 0036820 (0-2-7)
Meydan Sprint winner (Shea Shea): 2 (0-1-1)
Flying Childers Stakes winner (Green Door): 03 (0-1-2)
Hever Sprint Stakes winner (Stepper Point): 00 (0-0-2)
Lola Faulkner Conditions Stakes winner (Pearl Secret): 700 (0-0-3)
Previous season's Abbaye winner (Maarek): 6708 (0-0-4)
Dubai World Trophy winner (Maarek): 7008 (0-0-4)
Previous season's Cornwallis Stakes winner (Hot Streak): 5000 (0-0-4)
Rous Stakes winner (Steps): 00700 (0-0-5)
3 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in Newmarket Handicap last time, finishing 111
3 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in Lightning Stakes, finishing 111
2 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 35
2 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in Salinger Stakes, finishing 43
4 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in previous Abbaye, finishing 3065
3 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Palace House Stakes, finishing 191
3 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Temple Stakes, finishing 234
2 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in the Nunthorpe, finishing 27
2 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Scarborough Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Al Quoz Sprint, finishing 45
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in World Trophy, finishing 53
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in previous season's Wokingham, finishing 30
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Du Gros-Chene last time, finishing 422
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Saint-Georges, finishing 214

Trainers
British trained runners: 3-12-140
Australian trained: 3-3-15
Hong Kong trained: 1-2-5
Irish trained runners: 1-2-7
French trained runners: 1-0-5
Spanish trained: 1-0-1
South African trained: 0-1-3
American trained: 0-0-5
Other: 0-0-2
Record of horses trained in Britain & Ireland: 4-14-147
Record of horses trained outside Britain & Ireland: 6-6-36
Australian based trainers (3-3-15) have been responsible for 4 of last 11 winners.
Eddie Lynam (1-1-3) has trained Sole Power to win it last year and finish 3rd in 2012 & 8th in 2011.
Mike De Kock (0-1-1) & David Barron (0-1-2) saddled the 2nd and 3rd last year.
William Muir (0-0-4), William Haggas (0-0-6) & Kevin Ryan (0-0-7) have seen their combined 17 runners finish unplaced.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
horses drawn 1 to 8: 3-6-72
horses drawn 9 to 15: 6-6-58
horses drawn 16 or higher: 0-6-37
horses drawn between stalls 10 and 15 have won 6 of last 9 runnings of this at Ascot.

Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
There has only been one winner priced above 12/1 in past 10 renewals.
Favourites (2-3-12) have won just 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7
- Bred in Australia, New Zealand or France
- Run 2 to 4 times in 2014 (winning at least once)
- Finished in first 2 last time (posting RPR of 116+)
- Previously won over 5F and 6F
- Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
- Finished in first 4 in Prix de Saint-Georges, Palace House and/or Al Quoz Sprint
- Ran in Prix du Gros-Chene, Temple Stakes or Newmarket H’cap last time
- Trained outside of Great Britain, especially Australian or Hong Kong based
- If trained in GB & Ire, then course winner and ran in 2013 Abbaye
- Drawn in stalls 10 to 15

[ganjaman2]

ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES TRENDS 2014




The St James’s Palace Stakes is one of three group 1 races taking place on day 1 of Royal Ascot, which kicks off on Tuesday 18th June. Run over a mile for 3yos only, it brings together horses that have been running in the different 2000 Guineas races around Europe. Recent winners include Canford Cliffs, Dawn Approach and the mighty Frankel.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Race for 3yos

Breeding


8 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (7 of those 8 had won a group 1 over 1M or shorter)

Recent/Past Form


6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 others beaten in French or Irish 2000 Guineas or French or Epsom Derby)
10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 116+ in one or both of last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 116+ on last run over 7F or 1M
9 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had finished in the first 3 in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (exception placed in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (exception short head 2nd)
8 of 10 winners won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (1 exception didn't run in a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo and other was placed in Dewhurst)
4 of 10 winners had won a group race at Ascot as a 2yo (other 7 were having first course start)

Guineas Form


Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Kingman): 71511109 (4-0-8)
English 2000 Guineas winner (Night Of Thunder): 451711 (3-0-6)
Highest placed finisher from English 2000 Guineas: 4515127121 (4-2-10)
7 of 10 winners ran in the English 2000 Guineas, finishing 3415311
5 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 21111
2 of 10 winners ran in the French 2000 Guineas, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in French Derby last time, finishing 10
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 in Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (1 exception was 4th in French 2000 & other exception bypassed Guineas for French Derby)

Other Races


Dewhurst Stakes winner (War Command): 15611 (3-0-5)
Coventry Stakes winner (War Command): 1101 (3-0-4)
National Stakes winner (Toormore): 11 (2-0-2)
Greenham Stakes winner (Kingman): 821 (1-1-3)
Vintage Stakes winner (Toormore): 17 (1-0-2)
Craven Stakes winner (Toormore): 4322 (0-3-4)
Champagne Stakes winner (Outstrip): 2 (0-1-1)
Solario Stakes winner (Kingman): 2 (0-1-1)
Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 030 (0-1-3)
Breeders' Cup Turf Juvenile winner (Outstrip): 07 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1131
3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Greenham, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers


British trained runners: 5-8-54
Irish trained runners: 5-8-33
French trained runners: 0-3-9
German trained: 0-1-1
Other: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (3-8-24) has won 4 of the last 12 runnings of this race. His first string has a record since 2004 of 3-4-10.
The Richard Hannon yard (1-2-6) saddled the 1-2 in 2010 and the runner-up in 2013.
John Gosden (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the frame.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
horses drawn 1 to 3: 3-2-27
horses drawn 4 to 6: 4-4-27
horses drawn 7 or higher: 2-12-36
No very strong trends on the draw, though 7 of last 9 winners at Ascot came from 5 or lower.

Price


10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below
This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting in each of last 10 years and no winner going off bigger than 9/1.
Favourites (7-0-11) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.58.





Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 1M
- Won first time out & won a group race as a 2yo (or placed in a group 1)
- First 3 in National, Phoenix, Coventry, Dewhurst and/or Railway as 2yo
- Ran in the past 30 days
- Won last time out (or beaten in a Classic)
- Posted an RPR of 116+ on last run over 7F or 1M
- Group 1 or 2 winner (finished in first 3 in a group 1)
- Finished in the first 2 in Irish, French and/or English 2000 Guineas
- Finished in first 2 in Greenham Stakes
- Ran in Irish 2000 Guineas or a French Classic last time out
- Priced 9/1 or below (favourite has strong record).