PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES TRENDS 2014
The solitary Group 1 race on Day 2 of the Royal Ascot Festival is the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, run over a mile and a quarter for 4yos and upwards. Some of the best middle distance horses of recent times have won this have won this including Fantastic Light, Azamour, Rakti, Ouija Board and So You Think.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 although they have accounted for 81 of the 91 runners.
4 of 5 winners aged 5+ had run in previous year’s race, finishing 42732.
Muhtarram in 1996 & So You Think in 2012 have been the only 2 horses aged over 5 to win this race in past 30 years, Muhtarram had won it the previous year & So You Think had been close 2nd in 2011.
Fillies & mares (1-1-4) have gained 1 win and 1 places from their 4 runners in this race in the past 10 years.
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ last time (9 posted RPR of 121+)
10 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 over 1M1F to 1M 4F last time
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (exception had won group 2 and was 2nd in group 1 on last start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 1 to 3 times that year (finishing in first 4 on all starts)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
3 of 10 winners made their seasonal debut at the Dubai Carnival
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) had run in a Longchamp group 1 that year
Other Races (previous season)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Fugue): 121 (2-1-3)
Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 24 (0-1-2)
Breeders Cup Turf winner (Magician): 4 (0-0-1)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner (Dank): 7 (0-0-1)
4 of 5 winners aged 5+ ran in previous season's Prince Of Wales, finishing 2732
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 132
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's English 2000 Guineas, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's International Stakes, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe, finishing 54
Other Races (that season)
Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Magician): 024 (0-1-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, finishing 4111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ispahan last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Ganay, finishing 11
British trained runners: 4-11-63
Irish trained: 2217201620104 (3-4-13) – 4 of 6 unplaced were O'Brien pacemakers
French trained: 463173181446 (3-1-12)
Irish and French trained runners have a combined record of 6-5-25, which compares well to British based runners’ record of 4-11-63.
Aidan O’Brien (2-4-12) has trained 2 winners & 4 placed finishers from 12 runners since 2004, and his record with his first string is 2-4-8.
John Gosden (0-4-8) has seen 4 of his 8 runners make the places in past 10 runnings.
Michael Stoute (0-2-7) has filled a couple of places since 2004 while William Haggas (0-1-1) saddle the runner-up last year.
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with only 4 horses priced above 8/1 making the places in the past 10 years.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 8 & show a level stakes profit of 2.55 over past 10 years.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 (or a 5yo that ran in this race last year)
- Run 1 to 3 times in 2014 (never worse than 4th)
- Finished in first 3 in group 1 over 1M 1F+ last time
- Posted an RPR of 121+ last time in a group 1 over 1M 1F+
- Has won over 1M 2F or further
- Has won a group 1
- Finished in first 3 in Irish and/or English Champion Stakes in 2013
- Ran in a group 1 at Longchamp or Meydan in 2014
- First 3 in the Tattersalls Gold Cup or Prix D’Ispahan last time
- From the first 4 in the betting
- Trained in France or Ireland.