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    Default IRISH DERBY TRENDS 2014

    The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby takes place at the Curragh on Saturday 28th June. The Epsom Derby winner, Australia, will be looking to give Aidan O’Brien his eighth winner in the past 9 years, he has saddled the first 3 home in 3 of the last 7 years.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 6-11-57
    British bred: 3-5-24
    German bred: 1-1-2
    French bred: 0-1-5
    American bred: 0-1-9
    9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 10.6F+
    7 of 10 winners were sired by Galileo or Montjeu, including 6 of last 7, with last year’s winner being by Teofilo (son of Galileo)
    Galileo progeny: 3-3-17
    Montjeu progeny: 4-3-14
    Teofilo progeny: 31 (1-0-2)

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd over 7F to 9F on debut as a 2yo


    10 of 10 winners won over 7F+ as a 2yo
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 115+ on 1 or both of last 2 runs
    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days
    10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 7 career starts
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
    9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Frozen Fire in 2008 who was a slightly fortuitous winner)
    8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+



    2yo Form


    Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Maiden winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 31 (1-1-2)
    Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 1 (1-0-1)
    Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 1 (1-0-1)
    Autumn Stakes winner (Kingston Hill): 1 (1-0-1)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo (C & G) Maiden winner (Free Eagle): 52 (0-1-2) Leop 11 Aug 1m
    Beresford Stakes winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 35 (0-1-2)
    Eyrefield Stakes winner (Mekong River): 439 (0-1-3)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 6816
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium de Saint Cloud, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in Autumn Stakes, finishing 21

    3yo Form


    Epsom Derby winner (Australia): 215 (1-1-3)
    Highest Derby finisher: 2843215115 (3-3-10)
    Record of horses placed in the Epsom Derby: 5484133241541582 (3-4-16)
    Derrinstown Stud Trial winner (Fascinating Rock): 712123 (2-2-6)
    Chester Vase winner (Orchestra): 1215 (2-1-4)
    Ballysax winner (Fascinating Rock): 513 (1-0-3)
    Gallinule Stakes winner (Adelaide): 023 (0-2-3)
    Dee Stakes winner (Kingfisher): U3 (0-0-2)
    Bulmers Live at Leopardstown 3yo Maiden winner (Fascinating Rock): 759 (0-0-3)
    6 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby last time, finishing 350221
    2 of 10 winners ran in the French Derby last time, finishing 20
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 212
    2 of 10 winners ran in Chester Vase, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
    2 of 10 winners ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 41
    2 of 10 winners ran in Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 33
    8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a recognised Derby Trial (2 exceptions finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas)

    Trainers


    Aidan O’Brien (7-10-38) has trained 7 of last 8 winners of the Irish Derby. The record of his first string in past years is 5-1-10.
    Dermot Weld (1-1-6) trained Grey Swallow to win this in 2004.
    Jim Bolger (1-0-7) saddled Trading Leather to win this last year, his second time winning the race, his first was St Jovite in 1992.
    John Oxx (0-3-5) generally only saddles one if he feels it has a chance. His 6 runners since 2003 have produced 1 win and 3 places.
    Michael Stoute (0-3-7) has seen 3 of his 7 runners make the frame.
    Alain De Royer-Dupre (0-0-2) trained the runner-up in 2003.
    French-trained runners (1-1-7) have gained a win and 2 places from 8 runners since 2003. All 3 to make the frame had finished 1st or 2nd in French or Italian Derbys.
    British-trained runners (0-3-23) have failed to win the race in the past decade despite having accounted for approximately 21.6% of the runners, all 3 placed runners trained by Michael Stoute.

    Price


    8 of last 9 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.
    Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of last 10 & they show a level stakes profit of 0.23 since 2003.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 10.6F+
    - Ideally sired by Galileo or Montjeu (or a son of one of them)
    - Won over 7F+ as a 2yo
    - Posted an RPR of 115+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
    - Had 4 to 7 career starts (running 2 to 3 times in 2014)
    - Won a group race
    - Won over 1M 2F+
    - First 2 in a Derby trial (ideally Derrinstown, Dante or Chester Vase)
    - Ran in Epsom or French Derby last time out
    - Trained in Ireland (ideally by Aidan O’Brien)
    - From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1)

    3 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd June 2014), lfc4ever (23rd June 2014), neilb (23rd June 2014) 


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