NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE TRENDS 2014

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First run in 1883, the John Smith's Northumberland Plate takes place on Saturday, 28th June and is the highlight of the three-day Newcastle meeting. This class 2 handicap is limited to 20 runners and is run over 2 miles. horses carrying lower weights that have proven stamina are favoured.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-0-1
4yo: 3-10-65
5yo: 0-8-42
6yo: 5-6-38
7yo+: 2-6-40
horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 3-18-108
horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 7-12-78
Older horses have held a slight edge recently, with horses aged 6+ winning 5 of the last 6.

Weights


horses carrying 8-12 or more: 2-13-73
horses carrying 8-11 or less: 8-17-113
8 of 10 winners carried 8-11 or less, however the last 2 winners carried 9-3 & 9-10.


Top weight: 0000030681 (1-1-10)
Penalty: 30080562 (0-2-8)

Official Ratings


horses rated 94 or higher: 2-15-79
horses rated 85 to 93: 8-14-98
horses rated 84 or less: 0-1-9
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 85 to 93, though first 3 home in 2012 were rated between 98 and 101 and first home in 2013 were rated 102 & 95.
The last 5 winners were officially rated 90 to 102, they also filled 17 of 20 places in past 5 years.



Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last flat start


8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 91+ on last flat start
5 of 10 winners had run over hurdles in past 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice (flat & jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+ (exception had won over 1M4F)
6 of 10 winners had run in 12 of fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won 4 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had gained highest grade flat win at listed, class 2 or 3 (exceptions had won a class 4 handicap on flat & won grade 3 hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+

Other Races


Chester Cup winner (Suegioo): 300610 (1-1-6)
At The Races Sky 415 Handicap winner (Angel Gabrial): 3020 (0-2-4)
Melrose Stakes winner (Dark Crusader): 0 (0-0-1)
Betfred Cesarewitch Trial winner (Oriental Fox): 0 (0-0-1)
Betfred Double Delight Hat Trick Heaven Handicap winner (Nearly Caught): 00 (0-0-2)
Triconnex Handicap winner (Van Percy): 00 (0-0-2)
Betfred City Bowl Handicap winner (Whiplash Willie): 60 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Chester Cup, finishing 013
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred "The Bonus King" H'cap at Newmarket, finishing 86
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Old Borough Cup, finishing 20
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Mallard Stakes, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous season's November Handicap, finishing U3

Trainers


Donald McCain (2-0-4) has trained 2 of the last 4 winners, both were 6yos that had run over hurdles earlier that year.
Tony Martin (1-0-2) trained Arc Bleu to win this in 2008.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-3) has seen all 3 of his runners since 2004 make the places.
Tim Easterby (0-2-7) & Richard Fahey (0-2-11) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Amanda Perrett (0-1-6) trained the winner 2002 but has only since 1 of her 7 runners make the frame in past 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Mark Johnston (0-1-14) last won the race in 1994 but between 2000 & 2013, 18 of his 19 runners have finished unplaced. He did saddle a close 2nd last year.

Draw


horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-14-70
horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-8-70
horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-8-46
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
The 2 runnings on good to firm since 2003 were won by horses drawn in stalls 16 & 19.
6 of last 8 runnings on softer than good were won by horses drawn in a single figure stall

Racing Style


Both winners on good to firm made all or led for most of the way
6 of 8 winners on ground softer than good were held up

Price


Longer prices have fared well since 2004, with 7 of last 10 winners going off 14/1 or bigger, including two 33/1 winners and a 25/1 shot in 2011.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6+
- Officially rated 90 to 102
- Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
- Posted an RPR of 91+ last time
- Ran in Ascot Stakes, Chester Cup or in a handicap hurdle last time
- Ran in last 55 days
- Ran at least twice in 2014
- Won over 1M 6F+
- Previously run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
- Won a listed, class 2 or 3 race
- Won or placed in a race worth 34K+
- Finished in first 4 in Old Borough Cup, Mallard Stakes and/or November Handicap in 2014
- Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer
- Trained by Donald McCain or Alan Swinbank
- Priced 14/1 or higher.