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    Default PRETTY POLLY STAKES TRENDS 2014

    The Newbridge Silverware Pretty Polly Stakes is the big race on the Sunday card of the Curragh Derby meeting which takes place this weekend. The race is run over 1M 2F for fillies and mares and was promoted to group 1 status in 2004.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 2-4-36
    4yo: 5-8-28
    5yo: 3-2-10
    6yo: 0-0-3
    horses aged 4 or 5 have the best record: 8-10-38, which compares well to 3yo record over 2-4-36.
    Both winners aged 3 were trained by Aidan O’Brien: Peeping Fawn (3rd in Irish 1000 Guineas & 2nd in Epsom Oaks) and Misty For Me (1st in Irish 1000 Guineas & 5th in Epsom Oaks).

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception finished 5th in Epsom Oaks last time)
    9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
    10 of 10 winners ran in the past 45 days
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 114+ in their last 3 starts (exception posted RPR's 105 & 107 on 2 runs that year)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M2F
    8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was 2nd in a group 1 & other was a listed winner that had finished 2nd in group 2)
    10 of 10 winners had contested a group 1 before
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 1


    5 of 10 winners had won at Curragh (4 exceptions were trained in GB & having first course start and other was placed on both runs here, including 3rd in Irish 1000 Guineas)

    Other Races


    Previous season's winner (Ambivalent): 61 (1-0-2)
    Middleton Stakes winner (Ambivalent): 121 (2-1-3)
    Prix Minerve winner (Pomology): 1 (1-0-1)
    Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Marvellous): 81 (1-0-2)
    Hurry Harriet Stakes winner (Along Came Casey): 51 (1-0-2)
    Munster Oaks winner (Venus De Milo): 62 (0-0-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De L'Opera last season, finishing 132
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Blandford Stakes, finishing 11
    4 of 5 British-trained winners (last 4) ran in Middleton Stakes last time, finishing 1212
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Hopping Stakes, finishing 14
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Yorkshire Oaks, finishing 82
    2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Tatts Gold Cup last time, finishing 23
    2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 625
    2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 1000 Guineas, finishing 31

    Trainers


    British trained horses: 5-6-21
    Irish trained horses: 5-6-53
    French trained horses: 0-1-1
    German trained horses: 0-1-2


    British-trained runners (5-6-21) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 27.6% of the total runners. They have won 8 of 14 since 2000.
    John Gosden (2-0-2) has seen his 2 runners in this since 2004 both take the prize.
    Aidan O’Brien (2-1-12) trained 2 of the last 7 winners, both his winners finished in first 5 in the Epsom Oaks on previous start.
    Dermot Weld (1-1-8) trained the winner in 2010 and the runner-up in 2008 & 2012.
    Roger Varian (1-0-1) won this with Ambivalent in 2013, who may try to win it again.
    John Oxx (0-0-5) has missed with all 5 of his runners since 2004.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter
    Ambivalent’s win at 10/1 last year has been the only winner priced higher than 9/2 since 2000.
    Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.38.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo that finished in first 5 in Epsom Oaks)
    - Finished in the first 3 last time out, in past 45 day
    - Run 1 to 3 times in 2014
    - Posted an RPR of 114+ in one or all of last 3 starts
    - Won over 1M or 1M 2F
    - Course winner (or having first run here)
    - Won a group race
    - Finished in the first 3 in a group 1
    - First 3 in Prix De L’Opera, Hopping or Blandford Stakes
    - Aged 4+ that finished in first 3 in Middleton Stakes or Tatt’s Gold Cup last time
    - Trained in Great Britain (especially by John Gosden)
    - Priced 9/2 or shorter.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (25th June 2014), neilb (25th June 2014) 


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