Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,945
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked:        1,657
    Karma Level
    318

    Default OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2014

    The Bet365 Old Newton Cup is a 1M 4F class 2 handicap which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 5th July. The Duke OF Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot has proved a key trial, with 4 of the last 8 winners coming from that race. Luca Cumani has been the trainer to follow in the race, winning it 3 times in last 10 years.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 0-0-2
    4yo: 8-9-70
    5yo: 1-7-34
    6yo: 0-3-20
    7yo+: 1-4-24
    4yos have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 46.7% of total runners.

    Weights


    horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-22
    horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-38
    horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-6-56
    horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-6-34
    9 of 10 winners carried between 8-6 and 9-3
    Top weight: 902000530905 (0-2-12)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 100 or higher: 1-6-34
    horses rated 90 to 99: 8-12-90
    horses rated 89 or less: 1-5-26
    8 of 10 winners were officially rated 90 to 97



    Recent/Past Form


    5 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ last time out


    9 of 10 winners had had 6 to 16 career starts
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had at least 2 previous starts that year
    10 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps in GB & Ire
    10 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps
    5 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (other 5 were having first course start)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
    8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+
    8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3
    9 of 10 winners had won at a left handed track

    Other Races


    starspreads.com Live horse Racing Markets Handicap winner (Magic Hurricane): 71 (1-0-2)
    John Sunley Memorial Levy Board Handicap winner (De Rigeur): 4 (0-1-1)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 7265
    3 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 906

    Trainers


    Luca Cumani (3-3-9) has gained 3 winners & 3 places from 9 runners since 2004.
    Mark Johnston (1-2-19) had a very poor record in this race, prior to saddling the 1st & 3rd last year, having seen just 1 of his 14 runners in the previous 10 years make the frame.
    Hughie Morrison (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up in 2003 & 2012.
    David Elsworth (0-1-1) & Amanda Perrett (0-1-3) have aslo both saddled 1 placed finisher.

    Draw


    horses drawn top 5: 5-9-50
    horses drawn middle stalls: 3-3-50
    horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 2-11-50
    No very strong trends around the draw, though those drawn high have had a slight edge, and been responsible for 3 of last 4 winners.

    Racing Style


    6 of 10 winners led or raced with leaders
    4 of 10 winners raced in midfield
    This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
    No major trend on the prices, though there has been no winner priced over 16/1 since 2004.
    Favourites (2-4-14) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 4
    - Carrying 8-8 to 9-3
    - Officially rated 89 to 97
    - Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
    - Posted an RPR of 93 or higher last time out
    - Had at least 2 previous starts in 2014
    - Course winner (or having first start at Haydock)
    - Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (ideally won over 1M 4F+)
    - Won at no higher than class 3 level
    - Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or a handicap at Dante meeting
    - Trained by Luca Cumani
    - Tends to race prominently.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (2nd July 2014), neilb (2nd July 2014) 


Similar Threads

  1. MELBOURNE CUP TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 19th October 2014, 08:26 PM
  2. SKY BET DASH TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 22nd July 2014, 11:45 PM
  3. OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2013
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 3rd July 2013, 10:20 PM
  4. OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2012
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 6th July 2012, 05:28 PM
  5. OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2011
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 1st July 2011, 10:48 AM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •