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    Default PRINCESS OF WALES'S STAKES TRENDS 2014

    The Princess Of Wales’s Boylesports.com Stakes is the highlight of the first day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Thursday 10th July. A group 2 run over a mile and a half for three-year-olds and older, it is a race Michael Stoute has done extremely well in recently, winning 5 of the last 9.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    3yo: 1-2-7
    4yo: 6-5-34
    5yo: 1-5-19
    6yo+: 2-2-13
    4yos have won 6 of last 10, though they have represented almost half the total runners (46.6%).
    3 of last 4 winners aged 5+ had finished in first 3 in a previous running of this race.
    The only 3yo winner in past 10 years came in a sub-par renewal with just 4 runners (both 3yo winners in past 15 years both trained by Mark Johnston).



    Penalties


    Horses carry a 3lb penalty for group 2 win & a 5lb penalty for a group 1 win after 31/10/13.
    Record of horses carrying a 5lb penalty: 2021 (1-2-4)
    Record of horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 4342 (1-0-4)

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners had had at least 2 previous starts that season
    10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
    9 of 10 winners ran in a group race last time out
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts (exceptions posted a career high RPR on last start)
    8 of 10 winners had previously won over a 1M 4F+ (1 exception had finished 2nd in previous year's Gordon & King Edward Stakes and other was 4th in Hardwicke on previous start)
    8 of 10 winners had won group race (2 exceptions were twice placed in group company)
    6 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket
    5 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (4 of 5 others had not contested a group 1)

    Other Races


    Highest placed finisher from last yearis race: 122 (1-2-3)
    British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes winner (Seal Of Approval): 1 (1-0-1)
    Nad Al Sheba Trophy winner (Cavalryman): 2 (0-1-1)
    Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap winner (Excellent Result): 2 (0-1-1)
    Dubai City Of Gold winner (Excellent Result): 3 (0-0-1)
    Tapster Stakes winner (Gatewood): 55 (0-0-2)
    5 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke Stakes last time, finishing 37463
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 2461
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Huxley Stakes, finishing 116
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Brigadier Gerrard, finishing 150
    3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous Epsom Derby or St Leger
    3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's King Edward VII Stakes, finishing 122
    2 of 6 winners aged 4 won the previous year's Chester Vase
    2 of 10 winners ran in John Porter Stakes, finishing 01

    Racing Tactics


    5 of 10 winners were held up
    5 of 10 winners led or raced prominently throughout (all 5 did so in fields of 7 or less)

    Trainers


    Michael Stoute (5-1-8) has trained 5 of the last 10 winners of this.
    John Gosden (1-3-6) trained Lucarno to win it in 2008 and has seen 4 of his 6 runners make the frame.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-11) has not won with any of his 11 runners, though 4 have been placed. Marco Botti (0-1-1) saddled Joshua Tree to finish 2nd in 2012.



    Price


    No strong trends on prices.
    Favourites (1-5-10) have a poor record in this race, prior to last year, you had to go back to 2002 for last winning market leader.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 4 that ran in 2013 Leger or Derby and/or finished in first 2 in King Edward
    - Aged 5+ that had finished in first 3 in previous renewal of this
    - Run at least twice this year
    - Ran in a group race in past 50 days
    - Posted an RPR of 110 on 1 or both of last 2 starts
    - Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in multiple group races over 1M 4F)
    - Previously won a group race
    - Finished in first 5 in a group 1
    - Previously won or placed at Newmarket
    - Finished in first 6 in the Hardwicke last time out
    - Ran in Jockey Club, Huxley and/or Brigadier Gerard in 2014
    - Trained by Michael Stoute or John Gosden
    - Tends to race prominently (if field is fewer than 8.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    neilb (7th July 2014) 


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