PRINCESS OF WALES'S STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The Princess Of Wales’s Boylesports.com Stakes is the highlight of the first day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Thursday 10th July. A group 2 run over a mile and a half for three-year-olds and older, it is a race Michael Stoute has done extremely well in recently, winning 5 of the last 9.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 1-2-7
4yo: 6-5-34
5yo: 1-5-19
6yo+: 2-2-13
4yos have won 6 of last 10, though they have represented almost half the total runners (46.6%).
3 of last 4 winners aged 5+ had finished in first 3 in a previous running of this race.
The only 3yo winner in past 10 years came in a sub-par renewal with just 4 runners (both 3yo winners in past 15 years both trained by Mark Johnston).



Penalties


Horses carry a 3lb penalty for group 2 win & a 5lb penalty for a group 1 win after 31/10/13.
Record of horses carrying a 5lb penalty: 2021 (1-2-4)
Record of horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 4342 (1-0-4)

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had had at least 2 previous starts that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners ran in a group race last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts (exceptions posted a career high RPR on last start)
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a 1M 4F+ (1 exception had finished 2nd in previous year's Gordon & King Edward Stakes and other was 4th in Hardwicke on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had won group race (2 exceptions were twice placed in group company)
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket
5 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (4 of 5 others had not contested a group 1)

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from last yearis race: 122 (1-2-3)
British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes winner (Seal Of Approval): 1 (1-0-1)
Nad Al Sheba Trophy winner (Cavalryman): 2 (0-1-1)
Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap winner (Excellent Result): 2 (0-1-1)
Dubai City Of Gold winner (Excellent Result): 3 (0-0-1)
Tapster Stakes winner (Gatewood): 55 (0-0-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke Stakes last time, finishing 37463
4 of 10 winners ran in the Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 2461
3 of 10 winners ran in the Huxley Stakes, finishing 116
3 of 10 winners ran in the Brigadier Gerrard, finishing 150
3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous Epsom Derby or St Leger
3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's King Edward VII Stakes, finishing 122
2 of 6 winners aged 4 won the previous year's Chester Vase
2 of 10 winners ran in John Porter Stakes, finishing 01

Racing Tactics


5 of 10 winners were held up
5 of 10 winners led or raced prominently throughout (all 5 did so in fields of 7 or less)

Trainers


Michael Stoute (5-1-8) has trained 5 of the last 10 winners of this.
John Gosden (1-3-6) trained Lucarno to win it in 2008 and has seen 4 of his 6 runners make the frame.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-11) has not won with any of his 11 runners, though 4 have been placed. Marco Botti (0-1-1) saddled Joshua Tree to finish 2nd in 2012.



Price


No strong trends on prices.
Favourites (1-5-10) have a poor record in this race, prior to last year, you had to go back to 2002 for last winning market leader.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 that ran in 2013 Leger or Derby and/or finished in first 2 in King Edward
- Aged 5+ that had finished in first 3 in previous renewal of this
- Run at least twice this year
- Ran in a group race in past 50 days
- Posted an RPR of 110 on 1 or both of last 2 starts
- Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in multiple group races over 1M 4F)
- Previously won a group race
- Finished in first 5 in a group 1
- Previously won or placed at Newmarket
- Finished in first 6 in the Hardwicke last time out
- Ran in Jockey Club, Huxley and/or Brigadier Gerard in 2014
- Trained by Michael Stoute or John Gosden
- Tends to race prominently (if field is fewer than 8.