The Princess Of Wales’s Boylesports.com Stakes is the highlight of the first day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Thursday 10th July. A group 2 run over a mile and a half for three-year-olds and older, it is a race Michael Stoute has done extremely well in recently, winning 5 of the last 9.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
4yos have won 6 of last 10, though they have represented almost half the total runners (46.6%).
3 of last 4 winners aged 5+ had finished in first 3 in a previous running of this race.
The only 3yo winner in past 10 years came in a sub-par renewal with just 4 runners (both 3yo winners in past 15 years both trained by Mark Johnston).
Horses carry a 3lb penalty for group 2 win & a 5lb penalty for a group 1 win after 31/10/13.
Record of horses carrying a 5lb penalty: 2021 (1-2-4)
Record of horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 4342 (1-0-4)
9 of 10 winners had had at least 2 previous starts that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners ran in a group race last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts (exceptions posted a career high RPR on last start)
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a 1M 4F+ (1 exception had finished 2nd in previous year's Gordon & King Edward Stakes and other was 4th in Hardwicke on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had won group race (2 exceptions were twice placed in group company)
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket
5 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (4 of 5 others had not contested a group 1)
Highest placed finisher from last yearis race: 122 (1-2-3)
British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes winner (Seal Of Approval): 1 (1-0-1)
Nad Al Sheba Trophy winner (Cavalryman): 2 (0-1-1)
Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap winner (Excellent Result): 2 (0-1-1)
Dubai City Of Gold winner (Excellent Result): 3 (0-0-1)
Tapster Stakes winner (Gatewood): 55 (0-0-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke Stakes last time, finishing 37463
4 of 10 winners ran in the Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 2461
3 of 10 winners ran in the Huxley Stakes, finishing 116
3 of 10 winners ran in the Brigadier Gerrard, finishing 150
3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous Epsom Derby or St Leger
3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's King Edward VII Stakes, finishing 122
2 of 6 winners aged 4 won the previous year's Chester Vase
2 of 10 winners ran in John Porter Stakes, finishing 01
5 of 10 winners were held up
5 of 10 winners led or raced prominently throughout (all 5 did so in fields of 7 or less)
Michael Stoute (5-1-8) has trained 5 of the last 10 winners of this.
John Gosden (1-3-6) trained Lucarno to win it in 2008 and has seen 4 of his 6 runners make the frame.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-11) has not won with any of his 11 runners, though 4 have been placed. Marco Botti (0-1-1) saddled Joshua Tree to finish 2nd in 2012.
No strong trends on prices.
Favourites (1-5-10) have a poor record in this race, prior to last year, you had to go back to 2002 for last winning market leader.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 that ran in 2013 Leger or Derby and/or finished in first 2 in King Edward
- Aged 5+ that had finished in first 3 in previous renewal of this
- Run at least twice this year
- Ran in a group race in past 50 days
- Posted an RPR of 110 on 1 or both of last 2 starts
- Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in multiple group races over 1M 4F)
- Previously won a group race
- Finished in first 5 in a group 1
- Previously won or placed at Newmarket
- Finished in first 6 in the Hardwicke last time out
- Ran in Jockey Club, Huxley and/or Brigadier Gerard in 2014
- Trained by Michael Stoute or John Gosden
- Tends to race prominently (if field is fewer than 8.