The July Cup is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and it takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 12th July. A group 1, run over 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and older. Many of the horses that contested the two group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot will do battle again in this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
horses aged 3 or 4: 7-8-76
horses aged 5 or older: 3-12-75
3 to 5 year olds have won 9 of last 10, though they’ve represented 72.4% of total runners.
5 of last 7 horses aged 3 to make the frame had won a Newmarket group 1 as a 2yo
horses older than 5 have a poor combined record of 1-5-45.
All 6 horses aged 6+ to make the frame ran in Golden Jubilee and/or King’s Stand at Royal Ascot that year and 4 of 6 had previously finished in first 2 in a group 1.
Fillies & mares (2-1-12) have done well in this race recently. They have won 2 of the 6 runnings they have been represented in, over the past 10 year, from under 8% of the total runners.
9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 114+ in last 3 starts
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (3 of 4 exceptions were unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1 last time)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners had previously won 6F to 7F (exception was Fleeting Spirit in 2009 whose two previous runs at this trip had been seconds in a group 1 and group 2, both by less than a length)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was a listed winner having first try in a group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (3 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1, other had finished 5th in group 1)
8 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (4 Diamond Jubilee, 3 Kings Stand, 1 St James's Palace, 1 Queen Anne)
horses placed in last year's July Cup: 9652 (0-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from previous July Cup to return: 963019502 (1-2-9)
Diamond Jubilee Stakes winner (Slade Power): 015011 (3-0-6)
Highest placed finisher in Diamond Jubilee: 0016501031 (3-1-10)
Palace House Stakes winner (Sole Power): 1215 (2-1-4)
Middle Park Stakes winner (Astaire): 3421 (1-2-4)
Highest placed finisher from previous Middle Park Stakes: 34200106 (1-2-8)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Gregorian): 481 (1-0-3)
Sapphire Stakes winner (Fountain Of Youth): 3 (0-1-1)
Bengough Stakes winner (Tropics): 20 (0-1-2)
Greenlands Stakes winner (Slade Power): 543 (0-1-3)
British Champion Sprint winner (Slade Power): 035 (0-1-3)
Kings Stand Stakes winner (Sole Power): 7025 (0-1-4)
Highest placed finisher in Kings Stand: 4075002045 (0-1-10)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Astaire): 3400 (0-1-4)
Wentworth Stakes winner (Jack Dexter): 0906 (0-0-4)
Steward's Cup winner (Rex Imperator): 00970 (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 1611
3 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 302
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 502
3 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Prix de la Foret, finishing 530
2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 11
2 of last 3 winners aged 3 won the Middle Parks Stakes at 2
S African-trained: 0-1-3
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-8) trained the winner in 1999, 2001 & 2010.
Eddie Lynam (0-1-2) saddle Slade Power to finish 3rd & Sole Power 5th last year.
John Gosden (0-0-2) trained the winner in 2003.
Australian-based trainers (0-1-11) have had plenty of success in the Royal Ascot sprints in the past 10 years; however their 11 runners in this race since 2003 have produced 0 winners and just 2 placed finishers despite the fact they have saddled the favourite in 5 of the 8 years they have had a runner.
horses drawn in bottom 5 stalls: 7-8-50
horses drawn in the middle: 2-6-51
horses drawn in top 5 stalls: 1-6-50
There has been a definite bias to be drawn low, especially when the race has been run on fast ground. The last 6 winners, when run on firmer than good, have come from stall 5 or lower.
No strong trends on prices, 5 of 10 winners were priced between 2/1 & 7/1 and the other 5 were priced between 10/1 & 22/1.
Favourites (2-1-11) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 3.50.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 3 or 4
- Mares do well
- Ran in last 30 days (ideally at Royal Ascot)
- Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1)
- Posted a career high RPR of 114+ in last 3 starts
- Won a group race
- Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
- Previously won over 6F or 7F
- Finished in first 3 in Abernant Stakes, Diamond Jubilee and/or King’s Stand
- Finished in first 5 Duke Of York and/or 2013 Prix de la Foret
- Won the Palace House and/or 2013 Middle Park Stakes
- Drawn low (stalls 1 to 5 favoured, especially on fast ground)
- Trained in Europe (ideally in Britain).