FALMOUTH STAKES TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The QIPCO Falmouth Stakes is the big race on the second day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Friday 11th July. The race was upgraded to group 1 status in 2004 and is run over a mile for fillies of 3 and older. It is the first chance to see the female Classic generation of milers take on their older rivals at the highest level and this year’s renewal could feature as many as 3 Royal Ascot winners.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Wins-Places-Runners)
3yo: 4-5-34
4yo: 5-3-29
5yo: 1-3-11
6yo+: 0-3-6
9 of 10 winners were aged 3 or 4, though they have represented almost 79% of total runners.
The only winner aged older than 4 was Soviet Song in 2005, who had won previous year’s renewal.

Recent Form


9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 106+ in one or both of last 2 starts


10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season


9 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
8 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 last time
6 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (3 Coronation Stakes, 2 Queen Anne & 1 Duke Of Cambridge)
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (2 exceptions finished in first 5 in 1000 Guineas here)
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions all won a listed race)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions finished in first 6 in group 1 Coronation Stakes last time and another was 2nd in group 1 Prix Ganay)
4 of 4 three-year-old winners had won a listed or group race as a 2yo

Other Races


Coronation Stakes winner (Rizeena): 2252 (0-2-4)
Queen Mary winner (Rizeena): 28 (0-1-2)
Sun Chariot Stakes winner (Sky Lantern): 462 (0-1-3)
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes winner (Integral): 6364340 (0-1-7)
Atalanta Stakes winner (Integral): 34 (0-0-2)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Rizeena): 52 (0-0-2)
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in English 1000 Guineas, finishing 356
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Coronation Stakes, finishing 564
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ finished in first 4 at Royal Ascot last time
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous season's QEII, finishing 563
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Anne last time, finishing 24
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous season's Prix Du Moulin, finishing 41
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous season's Prix Rothschild, finishing 11

Trainers


British-trained: 8-10-59
French trained: 2-2-9
S African trained: 0-1-2
Irish trained: 0-1-8
German trained: 0-0-1
New Zealand trained: 0-0-1
Mark Johnston (1-2-3) trained the winner in 2008 and has seen his other 2 make the places.
Clive Britain (1-0-2) saddled a 50/1 winner in 2006.
Michael Stoute (0-2-6) last won the race in 1998 but has seen just 2 of his 6 runners in past 10 years make the frame.
The Richard Hannon yard (0-0-4) & Aidan O’Brien have seen their collective 6 runners since 2004 all finish unplaced.

Price


No major trend on prices. 6 of 10 winners went off shorter than 7/1 though 4 of last 8 winners have gone off 50/1, 10/1, 16/1 & 10/1 last year.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals. They show a level stakes loss of 4.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 or a 3yo that won a class 1 race as a 2yo
- Run 1 to 4 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 106+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Ran in a group 1 last time in past 60 days
- Has won over a mile
- Won a group race
- Finished in first 5 in a group 1
- 3yo that finished in first 6 in 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes
- 4yo+ that finished in first 4 at Royal Ascot last time
- Finished in first 5 in QEII, Prix Rothschild and/or du Moulin in 2013.