SUMMER PLATE TRENDS 2014

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The Betfred Summer Plate, which takes place at Market Rasen on Saturday 19th July, is a listed handicap chase, run over 2M 6½F. Peter Bowen has done well in the race recently, winning 4 of the last 11. The Totepool Home of King Size Pools Handicap Chase, which is run over the same CD in September, often provides clues to this and Grandads horse, who finished 7th in that race last year, is entered for this.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-4

6yo: 1-2-16

7yo: 3-6-37

8yo: 1-8-30

9yo: 2-6-34

10yo: 2-3-21

11yo+: 1-2-12

The ages of winners has been fairly evenly spread out. No strong trends here.



Breeding

Irish bred: 7-17-80

French bred: 3-6-38

GB bred: 0-3-26

USA bred: 0-1-6

Other: 0-0-4

10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred.

3 of the 4 French bred winners since 2000 came from the Pipe stable.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

horses carrying 11-7 or more: 0-11-32

horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 3-3-31

horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 5-5-45

horses carrying 10-6 or less: 2-8-46

Top Weights: 72322PP543P02 (0-7-13)

7 of the 13 top weights have been placed but no winner has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since 2000.

Last 9 winners carried between 10-6 and 11-5.

Since 2003, horses carrying a penalty (1-2-4) have gained a win and 2 places from 4 runners.



Official Ratings

horses rated 138 or higher: 1-7-30

horses rated 127 to 137: 8-16-95

horses rated 126 or lower: 1-4-29

8 of 10 winners (last 5) were officially rated 127 to 137



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start

6 of 10 winners won last time out

7 of 10 winners (last 5) ran at Stratford, Worcester or Ffos Las last time

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts

8 of 10 winners had won a chase since 1st April (1 exception 2nd in class 2 handicap chase on only start since 1st April & other had not run over fences since 1st April)

8 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 14 chases in Great Britain (2 exceptions had run in 18 or 19)

8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 13 & 14)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won no more than 2 handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 5F or further

9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase in Great Britain but no higher (exception had won a class 4 but placed in listed handicap chase)

0 of 10 winners had won a NH race in Great Britain worth more than £13,000



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Totepool Home of King Size Pools H’cap Chase: 11858131 (4-1-8)

Sheppard Family Handicap Chase winner (Buck Mulligan): 23 (0-2-2)

Perth Gold Cup winner (Guess Again): 82P0 (0-1-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in Totepool Home of King Size Pools H’cap Chase, finishing 2632

2 of 10 winners ran in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 45

2 of last 5 winners won a class 3 Ffos Las handicap chase last time

The last 2 novice winners won a class 3 Stratford novice chase last time



Racing Tactics

2 of 10 winners made all

4 of 10 winners tracked leaders

4 of 10 winners were held up



Trainers

Peter Bowen (3-5-23) has trained 4 of last 11 winners in the past 10 years and he has also saddled a placed finisher in past 2 runnings.

David Pipe (1-2-8) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 8 runners since 2004. His father also had a strong record in the race (won it in 2005 & 2005).

Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-11) won this in 2009 and also saddled 2 more places in past 10 years.

Evan Williams (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-2-5) have both saddled multiple placed finishers.



Price

No strong trends on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners going off between 3/1 & 9/1 while the other 3 winners were sent off between 16/1 & 25/1.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won 2 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 1.50.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Irish or French bred

- Carrying between 10-6 and 11-5

- horses carrying a penalty do well

- Officially rated 127 to 137

- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

- Posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts

- Has won over fences since 1st April

- Has run 5 to 14 times over fences in Great Britain

- Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

- Won over 2M 5F+

- Won a class 2 or 3 chase in Britain (but no higher)

- Finished in first 5 in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase in October

- Previously finished in first 6 in Totepool Home of King Size Pools H’cap Chase

- Trained by Peter Bowen, Jonjo O’Neill, Evan Williams or David Pipe.