The John Smith’s Cup is one of the big Northern handicaps of the season and it takes place at York on Saturday 12th July. The race is run over a mile, two furlongs and 88 yards and is such a highly competitive affair that it appears that a jockey’s claim can be the difference between winning and losing. 6 of the last 8 winners of this race have been ridden by claimers.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-0-6
4yo: 7-19-88
5yo: 2-5-45
6yo+: 0-6-48
horses aged 3 or 4: 8-19-94
horses aged 5+: 2-11-93
7 of 10 winners were aged 4, 2 exceptions were 5yos, one of whom was a close 2nd the previous year, while the only 3yo winner in past 10 years was Wigmore Hall, a subsequent group 1 winner.

Weights


horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-18
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 1-13-62
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 7-13-91
horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-3-16
The last 8 winners carried less than 9-0


horses carrying a penalty: 1-3-21
Top Weight: 4000000820200 (0-3-13)

Official Ratings


horses rated 102 or more: 1-5-29
horses rated 90 to 101: 9-19-135
horses rated 89 or less: 0-6-23
9 of 10 winners were officially rated between 90 and 101 from 70.2% of the total runners. Only horse rated above 101 to win this since 2004 was Fly Clarets in 2008, who had finished 2nd the previous year and won under a 5lb penalty.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had had 1 to 4 turf starts that season
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last 2 starts (exception had finished 2nd in 2 of 4 runs that season)
9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 96+ in last 3 starts


9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out


9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
7 of 10 winners had won a race that season (3 exceptions had been placed on 50% or more of their runs that year)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 2F (2 exceptions had won over 1M 1F & was having first try at this trip)
6 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or 3 level (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in a class 2 or higher handicap and other had won last 4 starts but yet to run higher than class 4)

Other Races


Investec Wealth Handicap winner (Farraaj): 4 (0-1-1)
Kilkerran Cup winner (Hi There): 3 (0-1-1)
Bathwick Tyres Handicap winner (Hi There): 93 (0-1-2)
IG H'cap winner (Tres Coronas): 03 (0-1-2)
Crabbies Original H'cap winner (Running Deer): 00 (0-0-2) Ches 9 Jun 1m21/2f
Bet365.com Handicap winner (Llanarmon Lad): 05 (0-0-2)
Stanjames.com Stakes H'cap winner (Clever Cookie): 000 (0-0-3)
Suburban Handicap winner (Sennockian Star): 000 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in IG Handicap at Chester, finishing 042
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wolferton last time out, finishing 27
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Suffolk Stakes finishing 12
2 of 2 Richard Fahey-trained winners ran in New Betting Hall Handicap, finishing 11

Trainers


Richard Fahey (2-4-29) has won the race three times since 2002.
William Haggas (2-1-6) trained the winner in 2011 and saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
David Barron (1-1-6) & Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-1) has both won this in past 5 years.
Michael Stoute (0-4-7) has seen 4 of his 7 runners since 2004 make the places.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-7), Mark Johnston (0-1-10) & Brian Ellison (0-0-9) have gained just 2 places from 26 combined runners since 2004.

Jockeys


Claimers: 6-1-38
Non-claiming jockeys: 4-29-149
6 of last 8 winners have all been ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance.
If we restrict the search to claimers riding horses priced 16/1 or shorter, their record becomes an impressive 6-1-18.

Draw


horses drawn 1-10: 2-20-100
horses drawn 11 or higher: 8-10-87
8 of 10 winners (including last 6) were drawn 12 or higher

Racing Tactics


7 of 10 winners were held up
2 of 10 winners tracked leaders
1 of 10 winners made all

Price


No major trend to be seen from the prices. 4 of 10 winners were priced between 5/2 and 7/1, the other 6 were sent off between 10/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (2-4-14) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.50. Since 2002, 9 of 11 beaten favourites had registered a top 4 finish at Royal Ascot.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4
- Carrying less than 9-0
- Officially rated 90 to 101
- Had 1 to 4 turf starts in 2014
- Finished 1st or 2nd on one of last two starts
- Posted a career higher RPR of 96+ in last 3 starts
- Won a race this season (or placed on over half their starts)
- Won at class 2 or 3 level
- Won over 1M 1F to 1M 2F
- Finished in first 4 in Wolferton and/or Suffolk Stakes
- Tends to be held up
- Drawn 12 or higher
- Ridden by a claimer (and priced 16/1 or shorter)
- Trained by Richard Fahey or William Haggas.