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    Info IRISH OAKS TRENDS 2014

    The Darley Irish Oaks takes place at the Curragh on Saturday 19th July. Aidan O’Brien has proven the only Irish trained capable of winning it in past 10 year, taking 3 times with British-based runners winning 5 and the French taking 2.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age

    Race for 3yo fillies



    Breeding

    6 of 10 winners (last 3) were by a sire with a stamina index of 11.1F or higher

    3 of 4 exceptions had a dam-sire with a stamina index of 10.6F or higher



    Recent Form

    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season

    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 45 days

    9 of 10 winners finished in the first two last time out (exception 4th in Epsom Oaks)

    8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time (2 exceptions did so on second last start)

    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 112+ last time (exception posted an RPR of 116 on penultimate start)

    7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (1 exception was 2nd in Epsom Oaks, 1 exception had won 1000 Guineas & other fell when about to win ove 1M 2 1/2F & was 2nd in Prix de Diane)

    8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a group 1 (2 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

    The last 10 winners had collectively run 30 times that season before taking this, excluding one fall (when an almost certain winner) they finished in the first 4 on all 29 of those runs.



    Other Races

    Epsom Oaks winner (Taghrooda): 11211547 (4-1-8)

    Record of 2nd, 3rd & 4th in the Oaks: 40373151349312 (3-4-14)

    Tweenhills Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Taghrooda): 17 (1-0-2)

    Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Taghrooda): 23 (0-2-2)

    Ribblesdale Stakes winner (Bracelet): 240235 (0-2-6)

    Swettenham Stud Trial winner (Volume): 2 (0-1-1)

    Blue Wind Stakes winner (Tarfasha): 34760623 (0-1-8)

    Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Marvellous): 6 (0-0-1)

    Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial Stakes winner (Bracelet): 7 (0-0-1)

    Debutante Stakes winner (Tapestry): 04 (0-0-2)

    7 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 1122114

    3 of 10 ran in the Musidora, finishing 241

    2 of 10 winners ran in Montrose Stakes as 2yos, finishing 31

    5 of last 9 Epsom Oaks winners to run in this have triumphed. 3 of 4 winners of the Epsom Oaks to taste defeat at the Curragh all did so on significantly softer ground in the Irish Oaks than they’d encountered at Epsom, while Talent last year won the Epsom Oaks on good to soft and was beaten at the Curragh on good to firm.



    Trainers

    British trainerd runners: 5-7-26

    Irish trained runners: 3-8-71 (non-O’Brien Irish runners: 0-2-42)

    French-trained runners: 2-1-3

    Aidan O’Brien (3-6-29) has won 3 of the last 8 runnings of this race and the record of his first string in the past 10 years reads 3-3-10.

    Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-0-2) has been responsible for both French winners but there will no French runner in the race this year.

    John Gosden (1-1-2) saddled the winner in 2012 and runner-up in 2005.

    Dermot Weld (0-0-6) last won this in 1996 & his 9 runners since 2000 have all been unplaced.



    Racing Tactics

    7 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division or in rear

    3 of 10 winners tracked leaders

    Record of front runners: 4767020974 (0-1-10), though 5 were recognised pacemakers



    Price

    10 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting & priced 5/1 or below.

    Favourites (5-1-10) have won 5 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 0.35 over past 10 years.



    Summary:

    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Finished 1st or 2nd last time, in past 45 days

    - Posted an RPR of 112+ last time

    - Run 2 to 4 times in 2014 & finished in first 4 on all starts

    - Won over at least 1M 2F

    - Finished in first 2 in Epsom Oaks

    - Finished in first 4 in the Musidora and/or Montrose Stakes

    - Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first run in group 1)

    - Hold up horses favoured (avoid front runners)

    - Trained by in Britain (especially by John Gosden) or by Aidan O’Brien

    - From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 5/1).

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (15th July 2014), neilb (15th July 2014) 


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