KING GEORGE VI & QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Qipco British Champion Series) takes place at Ascot on the 19th July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race see’s the Epsom Oaks winner, Taghrooda, attempt to be the first 3yo filly win this since 1976.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 1-3-11

4yo: 9-5-39

5yo: 0-7-21

6yo+: 0-1-11

9 of 10 winners were aged 4

horses aged 5+ have not won this in past 10 years despite having accounted for 39% of total runners.

Since 2000 there have been three 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, while other won the King Edward at Ascot on previous start.



Gender

Danedream became the first female winner of this race last year since Charter in 1983. The other 4 fillies/mares since 2004 have all been unplaced. The last 3yo filly to win this was Pawneese in 1976.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception placed on both starts that year)

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3+ lengths

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race



Other Races

That season

Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (Noble Mission): 711 (2-0-3)

Hardwicke Stakes winner (Telescope): 153815 (2-0-6)

Ormonde Stakes winner (Brown Panther): 813 (1-0-3)

Eclipse winner (Mukhadram): 2 (0-1-1)

Brigadier Gerard winner (Noble Mission): 72 (0-1-2)

Epsom Oaks winner (Taghrooda): 8 (0-0-1)

Huxley Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 753 (0-0-3)

Highest placed Epsom Derby finisher to run in this: 55 (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121

3 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last time, finishing 241

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season

Previous season

Highest placed finisher from previous year's Arc: 13133321 (3-4-8)

Previous year's Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 7117 (2-0-4)

Breeders' Cup Turf winner (Magician): 413 (1-1-3)

Previous year's Oppenheim-Union-Rennen winner (Ivanhowe): 1 (1-0-1)

St Leger winner (Leading Light): 419 (1-0-3)

Great Voltigeur winner (Telescope): 27F5 (0-1-4)

Previous year's Grand Prix de Paris winner (Flintshire): 3 (0-1-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 411

3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the International Stakes at York, finishing 44

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Prix Niel, finishing 21

2 of 2 German-trained winners ran in previous Grosser Preis Von Baden, finishing 14

2 of 2 German-trained winners ran in Grosser Preis Der Badischen Unterhermer, finishing 11



Trainers

British-trained runners: 4-12-50

Irish-trained runners: 3-3-17

German-trained runners: 2-0-3

French-trained runners: 1-1-9

Other: 0-1-3

Michael Stoute (2-5-15) has trained the winner 3 times in past 11 years (2002, 2009 & 2010).

Aidan O’Brien (2-2-14) trained Galileo to win this in 2001, he trained 2 of the last 7 winners, both were 4yos who had finished in first 2 in the Prix Ganay, Tatts Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales in 3 runs that season.

Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-7) trained the winner for 3 years running between 1997 & 1999. His last winner came in 2004 with Doyen.

Andre Fabre (1-0-1) has only saddled 1 runner in past 10 years,

Jim Bolger (0-1-1) has saddled just 3 runners since 1990, a 66/1 unplaced finisher in 1993, St Jovite, who won in 1992 and Trading Leather, 3rd in 2013.

Mark Johnston (0-0-2) has seen 2 of his 3 runners since 1999 make the places.



Price

All 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter

Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.98 over past 10 years.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 (or a 3yo that won the Irish Derby)

- Had 2 to 4 runs this season (and won a race in 2014)

- Finished first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 119+

- Run in last 50 days

- Won a group 1 (or won Royal Ascot group 2 last time)

- Won over 1M 4F (or previous group 1 winner having first try at this trip)

- Finished in first 4 in 2014 Tattersalls Gold Cup

- Ran in Prince Of Wales, Grand Prix de Saint Cloud or Hardwicke last time

- Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2013

- Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Michael Stoute or in Germany

- Priced shorter than 10/1.