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    Info SKY BET DASH TRENDS 2014

    The Sky Bet Dash Stakes takes place at York on Saturday 26th July. It’s a 6 furlong class 2 handicap for horses rated 105 or lower. The race was first run in 2004.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age

    3yo: 2-0-20

    4yo: 3-9-49

    5yo: 3-6-34

    6yo: 1-5-30

    7yo+: 1-5-35

    horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 8-15-103

    horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 2-10-65

    The two 3yo winners were Lesson In Humility, who won it off 96 in 2008 before winning a listed race next time and Van Ellis off 100 in 2012, who also won a listed race next time.



    Weight

    horses carrying 9-4 or more: 5-6-47

    horses carrying 8-8 to 9-3: 5-16-89

    horses carrying 8-7 or less: 0-2-32

    9 of 10 winners carried 8-12 or higher, they represented just 63.1% of total runners.

    horses carrying 8-12 or more: 9-17-106

    horses carrying 8-11 or less: 1-8-62

    horses carrying a penalty (0-2-4) have gained 2 seconds from 4 runners.

    Top weight: 0164206215041 (3-3-12)



    Official Ratings

    horses rated 100 or higher: 5-4-26

    horses rated 91 to 99: 3-12-82

    horses rated 90 or less: 2-9-60

    horses officially rated 100+ have won 5 of last 10 runnings from just 15.5% of total runners. 4 of last 5 winners (including last 3) were rated 100 or higher.



    Recent/Past Form

    9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 starts

    10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that year

    8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (2 exceptions finished 2nd in a h'cap worth 18K+ that season)

    10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days

    7 of 10 winners had won or placed over CD (3 exceptions having first run at York)

    9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception gained both wins over 7F and was 5th in valuable Timeform Sprint on only run over 6F, which was also his racecourse debut)

    10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K or more

    8 of 10 winners had won a class 1 or 2 race (2 exceptions were class 3 winners who had finished 2nd in a class 2 h'cap that season)

    6 of 10 winners ran in a sprint at that year's Dante meeting



    Other Races

    Havana Gold At Tweenhills Handicap winner (Goldream): 1 (1-0-1)

    Coral Sprint Trophy winner (Mass Rally): 20 (0-1-2)

    3 of 10 winners ran in Infinity Tyres Stakes H'cap, finishing 021

    3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Great St Wilfrid, finishing 370

    2 of 10 winners ran in Epsom Dash, finishing 22

    2 of 10 winners ran in Scottish Stewards' Cup, finishing 40

    2 of 10 winners ran in Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13

    2 of 10 winners ran in Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 99

    2 of 10 winners ran in Wokingham H'cap, finishing 70

    2 of 10 winners ran in Northern Sprint, finishing 82



    Trainers

    Richard Fahey (2-3-17) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 17 runners in this.

    Mick Easterby (1-0-1), Karl Burke (1-0-2), Barry Hills (1-0-4) & Jim Goldie (1-0-9) have each trained the winner once since 2003.

    Dandy Nicholls (0-6-21) has saddled 6 placed finishers in past 10 runnings.

    Kevin Ryan (0-2-8) has filled 2 places in past 10 years.



    Draw

    horses drawn 1 to 8: 6-10-80

    horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-15-88

    horses drawn lower have been slightly favoured and there has only been 2 winners that have come from higher than stall 10.



    Racing Tactics

    6 of 10 winners were held up

    4 of 10 chased leaders early on



    Price

    9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

    Only one winner has gone off bigger than 8/1.

    Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of 10 previous runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 2.25.



    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Aged 3 to 5

    - Carrying 8-12 or more (top weight does well)

    - horses carrying a penalty do well

    - Officially rated 100 or higher

    - Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 runs

    - Won a race worth 11K+ this season

    - Won over 6F

    - Won or placed over CD (or having first course start)

    - Won a class 1 or 2 race (or finished 2nd in a class 2 h’cap in 2014)

    - Ran in a sprint at Dante meeting (ideally Infinity Tyres Stakes H'cap)

    - Placed in Epsom Dash, Cammidge Trophy and/or Scottish Stewards’ Cup

    - Trained by Richard Fahey

    - Drawn 10 or lower

    - From first 4 in the betting (8/1 or shorter).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (22nd July 2014) 


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