INTERNATIONAL STAKES H'CAP TRENDS 2014

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The Longines International Stakes is a 7F class 2 handicap which takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 26th July, on the supporting card of the King George. Trends point towards 4 or 5 year olds that are still improving and ran well at Royal Ascot, 8 of last 9 winners had run in either the Royal Hunt Cup or Buckingham Palace. One other unusual statistic is that 3 of last 4 winners were sired by Oasis Dream.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 0-3-25

4yo: 7-11-86

5yo: 3-8-52

6yo+: 0-8-75

The last 10 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5

The three winners aged 5 were New Seeker (won the race as a 3yo), Castles In The Air (won a handicap at this meeting the previous year) and Field Of Dream (placed in Royal Hunt Cup at that year’s Royal meeting).

horses aged 6+ have a poor record, failing to win this race in past 10 years despite accounting for over 31.5% of the total runners.



Breeding

Oasis Dream: 1007100105 (3-0-10) has sired 3 of the last 4 winners. 2012 winner, Field Of Dream, is the only progeny of Oasis Dream entered this year.



Weight

horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-2-8

horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-6-50

horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-9-86

horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-13-94

The last 5 winners carried between 8-6 and 9-0.

Top Weight: 2008103000 (1-2-10)

horses carrying a penalty: 0050095410204000030800541 (2-5-25)



Official Ratings

horses rated 100 or higher: 4-7-63

horses rated 93 to 99: 4-14-92

horses rated 92 or lower: 2-9-83

8 of 10 winners have been officially rated 95 or higher



Recent/Past Form

5 of 10 winners won or placed last time (4 exceptions unplaced in handicap at Royal Ascot or July Meeting)

6 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (3 exceptions did so on second or third last start)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 100+ in last 3 outings

10 of 10 winners ran in past 40 days

7 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot or July Meeting last time (3 exceptions did so on penultimate start)

8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 race last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3)

7 of 10 winners had won a race that season (2 of 3 exceptions placed in a race worth 40K+ that season)

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times on turf that year

8 of 10 winners had previously won over 7F (2 exception had won over 6 and 8 furlongs)

7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (3 exceptions placed in a class 2 handicap)

9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K+

10 of 10 winners had contested a class 2 handicap worth over 30K that season



Big Field Form

8 of 10 winners had won a race with 12+ runners (2 exceptions placed in a Royal Ascot handicap with 28+ runners earlier that season)

All 10 winners won or placed in a race with 15+ runners, clearly this is a race where you want a horse that has experienced and run well in a competitive big-field handicap.



Other Races

Royal Hunt Cup winner (Field Of Dream): 1 (1-0-1)

Buckingham Palace Stakes winner (Louis The Pious): 237900 (0-2-6)

Breed-German-Buy German-Win German winner (Gabriel's Lad): 3 (0-1-1)

Investec Mile winner (Abseil): 39 (0-1-2)

Victoria Cup winner (Gabriel's Lad): 00040 (0-1-5)

Bunbury Cup winner (Heaven's Guest): 004085 (0-1-6)

Spring Mile winner (Brae Hill): 0 (0-0-1)

Challenge Cup winner (Heaven's Guest): 00 (0-0-2)

H Jarvis 134th Anniversary Handicap winner (Heavy Metal): 00 (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 0520

4 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 1004

3 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 9U0

3 of 10 winners ran in the Bunbury Cup last time, finishing 200

3 of 10 winners ran in previous Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer H'cap, finishing 280

2 of 10 winners ran in Ladbrokes H'cap at Doncaster, finishing 33

2 of 10 winners ran in Woodhurst Construction H'cap, finishing 19

2 of 10 winners ran in the Lincoln that season, finishing 20

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Challenge Cup, finishing 08

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in RIU Palace Meloneras Handicap, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Shergar Cup Sprint, finishing 22



Trainers

Mark Johnston (2-0-17) trained the winners 2008 & 2013, both were 4yos that had run in Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer H'cap, at Chester, the previous year.

Clive Brittain (1-1-6) trained the 40/1 winner in 2009.

Jamie Osbourne (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2012, his other 2 runners since 2000 were 3rd in 2003 & 5th in 2013.

Richard Fahey (1-0-7) trained the winner in 2010.

Kevin Ryan (0-3-11) trained the 3 places in past 10 years, while Brian Ellison (0-2-2) & David Simcock (0-2-5) have both seen 2 of their representatives make the places.



Draw (excluding 2005 when run at Newbury)

horses drawn 1-10: 4-10-90

horses drawn 11-20: 1-13-90

horses drawn 21 or higher: 4-3-34

The last 8 winners have either been drawn low (1 to 10) or high (21 or higher).

horses drawn 21 or higher have won 4 of last 9 at Ascot, including last 3, from less than 16% of total runners.



Price

No strong trends on prices but last 5 winners have gone off 18/1, 40/1, 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (0-2-15) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings and only 2 of the 15 (joint/co) favourites have made the places, level stakes loss of 10.00.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 or 5

- Ideally sired by Oasis Dream

- Had 3 to 5 turf starts in 2014

- Ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap in past 40 days

- Posted an RPR of 100+ in last 3 runs

- Won a race this season (or placed in a race worth 40K+)

- Won over 7F

- Won at class 3 level or higher

- Placed in a class 1 or 2 race

- Won a handicap with 12+ runners (& won or placed in a 15+ runner h’cap)

- Contested a class 2 handicap worth 30K+ in 2014

- Ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot (ideally Buckingham Palace or Royal Hunt Cup)

- Ran in Victoria and/or Bunbury Cup this season

- Ran in Shergar Cup Sprint or Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer H'cap in 2013

- Trained by Mark Johnston, Clive Brittain or Jamie Osbourne

- Drawn 21 or higher.