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    Default GALWAY PLATE TRENDS 2014

    Thetote.com Galway Plate is the highlight of the 7-day Galway Festival which kicks off on Monday 28th July. This Grade A Handicap Chase, which takes place on Wednesday 30th July, is run over 2M 6F and it is always a thoroughly competitive contest that never fails to excite.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    4yo: 0-0-1

    5yo: 0-0-1

    6yo: 1-3-16

    7yo: 4-10-48

    8yo: 2-6-61

    9yo: 2-7-48

    10yo: 1-2-26

    11yo+: 0-2-15

    8 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 9

    The one 6yo winner was a French-bred trained by Paul Nicholls.

    There have only been 2 winners aged 10 in the last 20 years: Life Of A Lord (1996), who was winning the race for a second consecutive year and had won the Whitbread Gold Cup on previous start and Bob Lingo (2012) who had won a handicap chase at Fairyhouse Grand National meeting and placed in another at the Punchestown Festival on last 2 chase starts.



    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

    Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-7-50

    Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 9-23-166

    9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone (exception was Galway specialist Ansar)

    Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in the past 15 years). However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.

    Top Weight: 262740U45P00 (0-4-12)

    Horses carrying a penalty (0-0-8) have failed to make the places from 13 runners since 2000.



    Official Ratings

    Horses rated 140 to 160: 1-6-46

    Horses rated 127 to 139: 8-15-102

    Horses rated 126 or lower: 1-9-68

    In the past 5 years horses rated 131 to 139 have won all 5 and filled 16 of 20 places. Again trends on official ratings seem to be affected by ground with higher rated sorts doing better on faster ground.



    Recent/Past Form

    5 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 chase starts

    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing (exception had fallen on last 3 runs)

    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 132+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts (5 of last 6 winners posted an RPR of 140+ on last completed chase start)

    8 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (2 exception had not run over fences that year)

    10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 16 chases (7 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)

    9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (exception ran in 8)

    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exception had won 2)

    7 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (3 exceptions were all 4th season chasers)

    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

    6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company

    3 of 10 winners had previously won at the Galway Festival (other 7 having first run at the Festival)



    Other Races

    Down Royal Galway Plate Trial winner (Fisher Bridge): 54P1 (1-1-4)

    Previous season's Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Golden Wonder): 63 (0-1-2)

    Brady Family Ham Kildare GAA Handicap Chase winner (Art Of Logistics): 5F00 (0-0-4)

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Gunness Handicap Chase, finishing U3

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 2P

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing FP

    4 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in a chase over 2M 4F-5F at that year's Punchestown Festival, finishing U23P



    Trainers

    Dermot Weld (2-5-13) has a good record in the race thanks to Ansar who accounted for both Weld’s wins and 3 of his other 5 placed runners.

    Willie Mullins (1-3-16) trained Blazing Tempo to win the race in 2011 and also saddled a placed finisher in 2010 & 2012.

    Christy Roche (1-2-6) has gained a win and 3 places from 8 runners since 2002.

    John Kiely (1-1-4) trained the runner-up in 2011 and the winner in 2013.



    Tom Mullins (1-0-5) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-6) have also trained the winner once since 2004.

    Niall Madden (0-2-5) has saddled two placed finishers, from 5 runners (4 of his 5 runners made the first 5). Noel Meade (0-3-16) has gained 3 places but from far more runners.

    Enda Bolger (0-1-1), John Dempsey (0-1-1) and Eoin Doyle (0-1-1) have each seen their one representative make the frame.

    Jessica Harrington (0-0-6), Dessie Hughes (0-0-6), Gordon Elliot (0-0-6) & Tony Martin (0-0-7) have collectively seen their 25 runners all finish unplaced.

    British-based trainers (1-1-16) have seen only 2 of their 16 runners make the frame in the past 10 years. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990.



    Racing Tactics

    6 of 10 winners race prominently

    4 of 10 winners were held up midfield



    Price

    9 of 10 winners were sent off 16/1 or shorter

    Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ sp’s varying quite a lot year on year, as in past 6 years there have been 3 winning favourites and 3 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 & 22/1.

    Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 6 & show a level stakes profit of 3.25 over past 10 years.



    Summary:

    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Aged 7 to 9

    - Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up good to firm)

    - Officially rated 131 to 139

    - Won their start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)

    - Posted an RPR of 140+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts

    - Contested a class 1 chase in 2014

    - Second or third season chaser

    - Previously run in no more than 16 chases

    - Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

    - Ideally previously won a listed or graded chase

    - Won over 2M 4F+

    - Previously won at Galway Festival (or having first run at the Festival)

    - Ran in a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 5F at the 2014 Punchestown Festival

    - Trained by Dermot Weld, Willie Mullins, John Kiely or Christy Roche.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd July 2014) 


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