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    Info LENNOX STAKES TRENDS 2014

    The Bet365 Lennox Stakes is the big race on the opening day of the Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 29th July. A group 2 run over 7 furlongs for horses age 3 or older.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age

    3yo: 6-3-27

    4yo: 1-8-28

    5yo: 3-4-23

    6yo+: 0-4-22

    5 of 6 three-year-old winners ran in English or French 2000 Guineas, exception won the Jersey Stakes and finished 3rd in Prix Jean Prat.

    No horses aged older than 5 has ever won this race.



    Gender

    Fillies & mares (1-0-2) have gained 1 win from their 2 runners.



    Weight

    There is a 7lb penalty for group 1 winners and 4lb penalty of group 2 winners since 1st November 2013.

    Record of horses carrying a group 2 penalty: 10769 (1-0-5)

    The last 2 winners to win under a penalty were Iffraaj (2006) who won the Park Stakes the previous year and was 2nd in July Cup on previous start and Nayyir in 2003, who had won previous year’s race and had placed in previous year’s group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest.



    Recent Form

    7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time (3 exceptions were 3yos unplaced in group 1's)

    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 104 or higher last time

    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ in their last 3 starts

    9 of 10 winners had run between 1 and 4 times that season (exception ran 5 times)

    3 of 10 winners had won at Glorious Goodwood (5 exceptions were having first course start and one other had finished 2nd in group 2 Vintage Stakes over CD)

    8 of 10 winners had won over 7F (1 exception was a 3yo having first try at the trip & other was beaten a short in a group 1 on only previous try at 7F)

    7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race over 7F

    8 of 10 winners had achieved an RPR of 113+ over 7F (1 exception having first try at 7F, other unbeaten in 2 runs at 7F, achieved RPR of 110)

    8 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions were listed winners who was twice 2nd in group 3's)

    7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race that year (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in group 1 that year)

    6 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 1 (only 1 winner had previously won a group 1 and only 1 winner had yet to contest a group 1)

    5 of 6 winners aged 3 won their maiden as a 2yo at Newmarket or Newbury



    Other Races

    Previous season's winner (Garswood): 7 (0-0-1)

    Highest placed finisher from previous year's race: 298037624 (0-3-9)

    Highest placed finisher from Jersey Stakes: 306146811 (3-1-9)

    Hungerford Stakes winner (Gregorian): 12 (1-1-2)

    City Plate winner (Glory Awaits): 3167 (1-1-4)

    Charles II Stakes winner (Coulsty): 61 (1-0-2)

    Criterion Stakes winner (Gregorian): 08420 (0-1-5)

    Dubai Duty Free Cup winner (Tawhid): 649 (0-0-3)

    3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 516

    3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in French 2000 Guineas, finishing 307

    3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Jersey Stakes, finishing 114

    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in previous year's Coventry Stakes, finishing 31

    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 97

    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in previous year's Middle Park Stakes, finishing 92

    2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in Diamond Jubilee Sprint, finishing 70

    2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Park Stakes, finishing 31

    2 of 4 winners aged 4+ had won at a previous Glorious Goodwood (1 Oak Tree & 1 Thoroughbred Stakes)



    Trainers

    The Richard Hannon yard (2-3-11) has been responsible for 2 of the last 6 winners and also 3 more places in past 10 years, including the runner-up in 2012.

    Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-5) trained the winner in 2004 & 2006.

    Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4) has trained the winner twice since 2000 and also saddled 3rd in 2013.

    Richard Fahey (1-0-3) trained Garswood to win this last year.

    Clive Cox (0-4-7) has seen 4 of his 7 runners make the frame.

    John Gosden (0-0-4) trained the inaugural winner of this in 2000 but his 4 runners in past 10 years have all been unplaced.



    Racing Tactics

    7 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)

    3 of 10 winners were held up in rear



    Price

    9 of 10 winners have come from the first 3 in the betting and priced 7/1 or below.

    Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 1.50.



    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Aged 3 and ran in a European 2000 Guineas and/or won Jersey Stakes or

    - Aged 4 or 5 that had won at Glorious Goodwood & finished in first 3 in group 1

    - Finished in first 3 last time or a 3yo unplaced in a group 1

    - Posted an RPR of 110+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts

    - Previously won at Glorious Goodwood (or having first course start)

    - Previously won a class 1 race over 7F & achieved RPR of 110+ over the trip

    - Has won a group race (ideally also won a class 1 race in 2013)

    - Finished in first 3 in a group 1

    - Aged 3 that ran in French 2000 Guineas, Greenham and/or Jersey Stakes

    - Aged 4+ that ran in Diamond Jubilee or 2013 Park Stakes

    - Trained by Richard Hannon, Saeed Bin Suroor or Marcus Tregoning

    - From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 7/1).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (25th July 2014) 


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