SUSSEX STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The Qipco Sussex Stakes is one of two group 1 races that take place during the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 29th July. It’s the highlight of Wednesday’s card and it’s the only race that Frankel won twice during his career. Last year’s winner, Toronado, will be looking to emulate that feat but will likely have to contend with a top class 3yo rival in Kingman.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 6-4-28

4yo: 2-5-26

5yo: 1-1-10

6yo+: 1-2-10

3yos have held the edge in recent years over their older rivals.

3yo: 6-2-28

4yo+: 4-8-46

Since 1999, 8 of the 10 winners aged 3 had finished in first 2 in St James Palace

All 4 winners aged 4+ had finished in the first 2 in the Queen Anne.



Gender

Fillies & mares (1-3-5) appear to have a fine record in this race, gaining 1 win and 3 places from just 5 runners, however Soviet Song accounted for the win and 2 of the places from her 3 runs in the race, with Ghanaati filling the other place. Both Soviet Song and Ghanaati finished in first 4 in both 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes as 3yos.



Recent Form

10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 121 or higher last time

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 5 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days

9 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (exception was runner-up in Eclipse on previous start)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had won a group race, 2 of 3 had finished 2nd in group 1 company and other had yet to run in group 1)

9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Royal meeting that season



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Toronado): 2221 (1-3-4)

St James Palace Stakes winner (Kingman): 521112 (3-2-6)

Highest placed finisher from St James Palace Stakes: 5352151132 (3-3-10)

2000 Guineas winner: 9112 (2-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from 2000 Guineas winner: 99511112 (4-1-8)

Coventry Stakes winner (War Command): 112 (2-1-3)

Queen Anne Stakes winner (Toronado): 12213 (2-1-5)

Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Kingman): 511 (2-0-3)

Falmouth Stakes winner (Integral): 12 (1-1-2)

Previous season's QEII winner (Olympic Glory): 21 (1-1-2)

Previous season's Dewhurst winner (War Command): 412 (1-1-3)

Greenham Stakes winner (Kingman): 1 (1-0-1)

Champagne Stakes winner (Outstrip): 1 (1-0-1)

Lockinge winner (Olympic Glory): 21 (1-0-2)

Solario Stakes winner (Kingman): 2 (0-1-1)

Duke Of Cambridge Stakes winner (Integral): 2 (0-1-1)

5 of 6 winners aged 3 (last 5) ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 14314

4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace, finishing 1112

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 11

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in previous season's Coventry, finishing 11

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in previous season's Dewhurst, finishing 71

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 21

4 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 2211

3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Lockinge, finishing 321

2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Hong Kong Mile, finishing 53

2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's QEII, finishing 51



Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2-4-15) has won the race 3 times in the past 12 years, all 3 of his winners were 3yos, though he has only saddled 1 older horse (Rip Van Winkle 2nd in 2010). Since 2004 his first strings have a record of 2-3-8.

Richard Hannon (2-1-6) has been responsible for 3 of last 11 winners (2003, 2010 & 2013).

John Gosden (0-1-2) has yet to train the winner of this, closest he’s come was with Raven’s Pass, 2nd in 2008.

Michael Stoute (0-1-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners finished 3rd in past 10 years.



Price

The last 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and priced 15/2 or below.

Favourites (5-4-11) have won the last 5 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 1.80 since 2004.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 3 (or aged 4 to 6 that finished in first 2 in Queen Anne)

- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out & posted an RPR of 121+

- Run 2 to 5 times in 2014

- Run in last 55 days

- Won over a mile

- Has won a group 1

- Finished in the first two at Royal Ascot

- 3yo finished in first 4 in St James Palace and/or Eng/Irish 2000 Guineas

- Aged 4+ finished in first 3 in Lockinge and/or Queen Anne

- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Richard Hannon

- From first 4 in the betting (15/2 or lower).