EBOR HANDICAP TRENDS 2014
The Betfred Ebor Handicap takes placed on the Saturday of York’s four day Ebor festival which starts on Wednesday 21st August. The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. However from a trends perspective we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.
Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2003-2013):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-4-6
4yo: 3-12-78
5yo: 5-9-59
6yo: 2-2-31
7yo+: 0-2-17
3 year olds have a fine record since 2000, winning it in 2000 & 2001 and seeing 6 of their 9 representatives since 2002 making the places.
5 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 30.9% of the runners.
In the last 30 years, there have only been 2 winners aged older than 5.
You have to go back to 1979 and the great Sea Pigeon for last winner aged 7+.
Weights
horses carrying 9-2 or more: 3-9-75
horses carrying 9-1 or less: 7-20-116
In past 4 years, all 4 winners and 13 of 15 horses to make places carried 8-10 to 9-2.
Only 3 horses since 1995 have carried over 9-0 to victory, all 3 posted an RPR of 105+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.
horses carrying a penalty: 2-3-20 – both winners to carry a penalty trained by Luca Cumani.
Claimers (2-1-14) have ridden 2 of the last 5 winners of the Ebor.
Top weight: 809004058663 (0-2-12)
Official Ratings
horses rated 103 to 112: 0-9-45
horses rated 92 to 102: 8-19-133
horses rated 91 or less: 2-1-24
8 of last 9 winners (last 6) have been officially rated between 94 and 101.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better on last flat start (both exceptions won a class 3)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of last 12 months in their last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception placed in listed & other was placed on only run that season)
9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (exception twice placed in listed company)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 9 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (exception placed in a listed race over 1M 4F)
3 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time
4 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap at Ascot last time
2 of 10 winner ran at the Galway Festival last time
Other Races
Record of winners at Glorious Goodwood in the Ebor: 81316004 (2-2-8)
Northumberland Plate winner (Angw Gabrial): 4100 (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Northumberland Plate: 4915900005 (1-1-10)
Summer Stakes winner (Van Percy): 01360 (1-1-5)
Triconnex H'cap winner (Van Percy): 1 (1-0-1) Nmk 18 May 1n6f c2
Egerton House Stables H'cap winner (Glorious Protector): 1 (1-0-1)
Qipco Sponsoring British Racing Stakes winner (Mighty Yar): 10 (1-0-2)
Queen Mother's Cup winner (Pearl Castle): 10 (1-0-2)
Previous year's Old Newton Cup winner (): 293 (0-2-3)
Betfred Double Delight Hat Trick Handicap winner (Nearly Caught): 4 (0-1-1)
City Bowl H'cap winner (Whiplash Willie): 4 (0-1-1)
GL Events Owen Brown Handicap winner (Pallastor): 300 (0-1-3)
Braveheart handicap winner (Dare To Achieve): 939 (0-1-3)
Old Newton Cup winner (De Rigeur): 500903 (0-1-6)
Previous year's Mallard Stakes winner (Camborne): 70 (0-0-2)
At The Races Sky 415 Handicap winner (Amge Gabrial): 000 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 15
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in previous November Handicap, finishing 32
3 of 10 winners finished in first 3 at Glorious Goodwood last time out
3 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Royal Ascot that season
Trainers
Luca Cumani (2-1-6) has won the race three times since 1999 and 4 of his 6 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.
David Elsworth (1-1-3), Brian Ellison (1-1-5) & Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-7) have all saddled a winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Lacy Cecil (1-0-1, Jane Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) & Willie Mullins (1-0-4) have each won 1 of past 10 renewals.
Aidan O’Brien (0-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled since 2000 have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
Michael Stoute (0-2-9) has saddled a placed finisher in 2 of last 4 runnings.
James Fanshawe (0-1-2) has gained 2 seconds and a fourth from his last 5 runners in this.
Irish trained runners (2-5-20) have won 3 of the last 12 runnings at York from approximately 10% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st & 4th in 2010 and the 2nd in 2012.
Draw
horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 8-6-70
horses drawn in the middle stalls: 1-7-51
horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-16-70
8 of 10 winners were drawn in the highest 7 stalls
Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or rear
Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 6 of 10 winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 4 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-4-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 to 6 (or Aidan O’Brien 3yo)
- Carrying 8-10 to 9-2
- Having a claimer on board is a positive
- Officially rated 94 to 101
- Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
- Posted career RPR of 102+ in last 2 starts
- Won a race this season (or placed in over 50% of their runs)
- Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
- Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway
- horses that won at Glorious Goodwood do well
- Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)
- Won at class 3 level or higher
- Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in a class 1 race over 1M 4F+)
- Drawn in highest 7 stalls
- Hold up horses favoured
- Trained by Luca Cumani, David Elsworth or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo.
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