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    Default JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL STAKES TRENDS 2014

    The Juddmonte International Stakes is the highlight of day 1 of York’s Ebor meeting, which begins on Wednesday 20th August. It’s a group 1 run over 1M 2½F for horses aged 3 or older and this year’s renewal could see Derby winner, Australia, take on the older horses for first time. With York being abandoned in 2008, this race was run at Newmarket, but from a trends point of view we will focus on the last 10 runnings at York.



    Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2003 - 2013):



    Age

    3yo: 2-3-19

    4yo: 5-4-24

    5yo: 2-6-21

    6yo+: 1-0-7

    4yos have won 5 of last 10 from 33.8% of total runners

    The three winners aged 3 since 2000 were Sea The Stars (Derby & 2000 Guineas winner), Authorized (Derby winner) and Giant’s Causeway (runner-up in English & Irish 2000 Guineas). All 3 were multiple group 1-winners.

    In 2011, Twice Over became the first ever horse aged older than 5 to win the race. He had finished runner-up in the previous year’s race and the 2011 renewal failed to include any 3yo runners.



    Gender

    Fillies/mares (0-1-2) have filled 1 place from 2 runners.



    Recent/Past Form

    10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

    9 of 10 winners contested a group 1 last time (exception won group 2 York Stakes)

    8 of 10 winners won or placed last time out

    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time out

    8 of 10 winners had won a race this season (both exceptions were placed in a group 1 that season)

    8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (1 exception had finished 2nd in the Eclipse & 4th in Derby & other was Frankel running over further than a mile for first time)

    9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (exception was 2nd in a group 1)



    Other Races

    Eclipse winner (Mukhadram): 13123 (2-1-5)

    Derby winner (Australia): 11 (2-0-2)

    Dante Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 21 (1-1-2)

    Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 1 (1-0-1)

    Breeders Cup Turf winner (Magician): 3 (0-1-1)

    Middleton Stakes winner (Ambivalent): 2 (0-1-1)

    Irish Derby winner Australia): 42 (0-1-2)

    Huxley Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 323 (0-1-3)

    Hardwicke Stakes winner (Telescope): 523 (0-1-3)

    Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (Noble Mission): 33 (0-0-2)

    5 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 12212

    4 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 5455

    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 611

    3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in Lockinge Stakes, finishing 515

    3 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 213

    2 of 10 winners ran in the King George last time, finishing 53

    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's QEII Stakes, finishing 11

    Both winners aged 3 ran in the Derby, finishing 11



    Trainers

    The Cecil Yard (2-2-6) and Aidan O’Brien (2-2-18) have been responsible for the last 4 winners.

    Michael Stoute (1-1-7), Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-7) & Peter Chapple-Hyam have each trained the winner once in past 10 runnings.

    2 of the 4 French-trained runners since 2001 have been placed though there has been no French-trained winner since 1987.



    Price

    10 of 10 winners went off 8/1 or shorter

    The highest price winner of this in the last 10 years was Notnowcato in 2006 at 8/1.

    Favourites (4-1-10) have won 7 of last 13 at York but show a level stakes loss of 2.40 over past 10 renewals.



    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo Epsom Derby winner)

    - Run at least twice this season

    - Won or placed last time, posting an RPR of 117+ (ideally in a group 1)

    - Won over 1M 2F+

    - Has won a group 1

    - Finished in the first 2 in the Eclipse, Queen Anne and/or Sussex Stakes

    - Finished in first 5 in Prince of Wales, Lockinge and/or the King George

    - Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Lady Cecil

    - Priced 8/1 or shorter.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (11th August 2014) 


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