GREAT ST WILFRID HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

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The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the most valuable race to be run at Ripon all season and it takes place this Saturday, 16th August. It is run over 6 furlongs for 3yos and older it is always a very hotly contested handicap.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-1-8

4yo: 4-9-49

5yo: 2-8-51

6yo: 2-5-37

7yo: 2-4-25

8yo+: 0-3-26

No very strong trends on age, obviously 10 of 10 winners have been aged 4 to 7, though they represented almost 83% of the total runners.

The last winning 3yo was Pipalong in 1999; she went on to win at group 1 level.



Weights

horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-20

horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-10-58

horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-14-98

horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-3-20

Higher weights have held the edge in recent years with last 8 winners carrying 8-9 to 9-6.

Top Weight: 0000720000 (0-0-10)



Official Ratings

horses rated 101 or higher: 0-3-25

horses rated 91 to 100: 9-18-127

horses rated 90 or less: 1-9-44

9 of the 10 winners (last 8) were officially rated between 92 and 100.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season

7 of 10 winners had won a race that season (2 exceptions were placed on last 2 runs & placed in Stewards Cup last time. Other exception had won previous year's race)

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

8 of 10 winners had run in past 21 days

10 of 10 winners had won over at least 6 furlongs

7 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time

5 of last 6 winners had previously won over CD



Other Races

PPR Foundation Handicap winner (Barkston Ash/Kimberella): 11 (2-0-2)

Weatherbys Stallion Book Sprint Trophy winner (Pipers Note): 004012 (1-2-6)

RIU Palace Meloneras Handicap winner (Fast Shot): 7130 (1-1-4)

Skybet Supporting Yorkshire Summer Racing Handicap winner (See The Storm): 1 (1-0-1)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0404

3 of 10 winners ran in previous Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 000

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 40

2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Steward's Cup, finishing 42

2 of 10 winners ran in the RIU Palace Meloneras Handicap, finishing 10

2 of 10 winners ran in Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 09

2 of 10 winners ran in Sky Bet Dash, finishing 06

2 of 10 winners ran in PPR Foundation Handicap, finishing 11



Trainers

Dandy Nicholls (2-11-30) has done well with his runners in this race in past 9 years, with 2 winners and 11 more placed from 30 runners. Adrian Nicholls’ last 8 rides in the race have supplied a winner and 5 places (all on Dandy Nicholls runners, he will likely be on the stable first string).

David O’Meara (2-0-4) won back to back renewals with Pepper Lane.

Clive Cox (1-1-4), Richard Fahey (1-1-18) and Richard Whitaker (1-0-2) have each trained the winner once in past 10 years.

Kevin Ryan (0-6-21) saddled 6 places finishers in past 10 runnings.

Mick Channon (0-2-9) has had a placed finisher in 4 of last 12 renewals.

Michael Dods (0-1-1) & Milton Bradley (0-1-3) each saddled a placed finishers last year.

Tim Easterby (0-1-12) & David Barron (0-0-13) have managed just 1 place between them from a collective 25 runners.



Draw

horses drawn 1 to 10: 8-19-100

horses drawn 11 or higher: 2-11-96

horses drawn low have a big advantage with just 1 winner coming from higher than stall 11 in past 10 years.



Price

7 of 10 winners were sent off 11/1 or shorter

The only 2 winners to win outside the 8/1 to 20/1 band were the two winning favourites.

Favourites (2-2-10) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.00.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 to 7

- Carrying 8-10 to 9-6

- Officially rated 91 to 100

- Run at least 3 times this season

- Won a race this season (or placed in Steward’s Cup)

- Ran in class 3 or higher last time

- Ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time out

- Won over 6F or further

- CD winners do well

- Ran in the 2014 Stewards Cup and/or 2013 Ayr Gold Cup

- Won the RIU Palace Meloneras or PPR Foundation Handicap

- Drawn 1 to 10

- Trained by Dandy Nicholls (& ridden by A Nicholls), Clive Cox or David O’Meara.