ARLINGTON MILLION TRENDS 2014

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The Arlington Million was first run in 1981 and was the first ever race to offer a purse of $1 million as the prize. It takes place at Arlington Park on Saturday 16th August and, as per usual, there looks likely to be a European presence in the race. Also always hold on to your dockets following this race, the first past the post has been thrown out 3 times in past 11 runnings, including in last year’s race.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

4yo: 6-6-40

5yo: 3-4-24

6yo: 0-7-20

7yo+: 1-2-14

horses aged 4 or 5 have a combined record of 9-10-64

horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 1-9-34

Since 1990 only one horse not aged 4 or 5 has won this, The Tin Man in 2006, who won grade 1’s on his next 2 outings.

Since 2000, 5 of 7 winners aged 4 had run in a European Derby the previous year.



Breeding

USA bred: 5-11-52

Irish bred: 2-2-20

GB bred: 1-4-10

Canadian bred: 1-0-2

French bred: 1-0-6

South African bred: 0-1-1

German bred: 0-1-2

Brazilian bred: 0-0-4

Argentinian bred: 0-0-1

horses bred in Europe: 4-7-38

horses bred in North or South America: 6-11-59



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was 4th in a York group 2)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time (exception posted RPR of 107)

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ in last 3 outings

9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out

10 of 10 winners ran 2 to 5 times that season

9 of 10 winners ran in the past 60 days

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (exception was a grade 1 winner over 1M 1F, having first try over further)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions placed in a group 1 & other was a group 2 winner)



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Real Solution): 226 (0-2-3)

Highest placed finisher from Man O'War Stakes: 24231214 (2-3-8)

Manhattan Handicap winner (Real Solution): 8217 (1-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from Manhattan H'cap: 18212791 (3-2-8)

Arlington Handicap winner (Finnegans Wake): 795624630 (0-2-9)

Prix d'Harcourt winner (Smoking Sun): 5 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Breeders' Cup Turf winner (Magician): 6 (0-0-1)

3 of 6 N American-trained winners ran in Manhattan H'cap, finishing 913

2 of 6 N American-trained winners ran in Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, finishing 61

2 of 6 N American-trained winners ran in Gulfstream Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 31

2 of 6 N American-trained winners ran in previous year's Jamacian H'cap, finishing 22

2 of 6 N American-trained winners ran in previous year's Hollywood Derby, finishing 37

2 of 4 European-trained winners ran in previous year's French Derby, finishing 00

2 of 4 European-trained winners ran in previous year's Prix Guillaume d'Ornano, finishing 25d

2 of 4 European-trained winners ran in previous year's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in the Man O'War Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Breeders’ Cup Turf, finishing 34

3 of 3 winners trained in GB or Ireland ran at Dubai Carnival that year



Trainers

American trained runners: 5-9-59

Irish-trained runners: 2-0-7

British-trained runners: 1-6-19

Canadian trained runners: 1-0-2

French-trained runners: 1-0-7

German-trained runners: 0-2-2

South African-trained runners: 0-2-2

Aidan O’Brien (2-0-6) trained Cape Blanco to win it in 2011 & Powerscourt to win it in 2005 (also first past post in 2004, but disqualified and placed 4th).

Dale Romans (1-1-4) has saddled a winner & runner-up from 4 representatives since 2004.

Chad Brown (1-0-1) trained Real Solution to win this last year, is entered again.

Andrew Balding (0-1-3) trained Side Glance to finish 3rd last year, entered again this year.



Price

No strong trends on prices.

Favourites (2-5-10) show a level stakes loss of 4.40 over past 10 years.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 or 5

- Run 2 to 5 times in 2014

- Finished in the first 3 in a group 1 or 2 last time (posting RPR of 110+)

- Posted an RPR of 118+ in last 3 starts

- Won over 1M 2F+

- Previously won a group 1

- Ran in the Manhattan H’cap, Woodford Reserve Classic and/or Man O’War in 2014

- European trained that ran at Dubai Carnival in 2014

- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Dale Romans.