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    Default BEVERLY D STAKES TRENDS 2014

    The Beverly D Stakes takes place on the undercard of the Arlington Million meeting on Saturday. It’s a grade 1 run over 1M 1½F for fillies & mares aged 3 or older and while the prize has kept in the US in 7 of the past 10 years, all 7 of those US-trained winners began their racing career in Europe.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age

    3yo: 0-2-6

    4yo: 4-11-47

    5yo: 5-2-27

    6yo: 1-3-12

    7yo+: 0-1-1

    No strong trends on ages of the winners. 9 of 10 were aged 4 or 5 however the age group represented almost 80% of the total runners.



    Breeding

    French bred: 3-1-8

    British bred: 2-5-15

    German bred: 2-0-5

    American bred: 1-7-47

    S African bred: 1-3-4

    Irish bred: 1-2-7

    Candadian Bred: 0-1-2

    Other: 0-0-5

    8 of 10 winners were European-bred & they represented less than 38% of total runners.

    All 4 South African-bred runners have made the frame, 1 won and 3 placed.

    Despite representing over 50% of the total runners, horses bred in North American have won just 1 of the last 10 runnings of the Beverly D.



    Recent/Past Form

    8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (2 exceptions finished in first 6 in a G2)

    8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 108+ on last start

    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that year (exception ran 7 times)

    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F+ (exception won over 1M & finished close 2nd in a grade 1 on only start over further than 1M)

    9 of 10 winners had won a graded/group race (exception was 2nd in a grade 3 over CD on previous start)

    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group/grade 1

    9 of 10 winners ran in France, Britain or Ireland as 3yos (exception raced in S Africa as a 3yo)

    8 of 10 winners (last 8) had finished in first 3 in group race in Europe

    7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race in Europe



    Other Races

    Sheepshead Bay Stakes highest placed finisher: 14615909 (2-0-8)

    Previous season's Spinster Stakes winner (Emollient): 0 (0-0-1)

    Ontario Matron Stakes winner (La Tia): 9 (0-0-1)

    Previous year's Arlington Oaks winner (La Tia): 5 (0-0-1)

    Garden City Stakes winner (Alterite): 0 (0-0-1)

    Arlington Matron Stakes winner (La Tia): 85 (0-0-2)

    2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 13

    2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in Modesty H'cap last time, finishing 32

    2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in the Sheepshead Bay H'cap, finishing 21

    2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in the Very One H'cap, finishing 11

    2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in previous season's Glen Falls H'cap, finishing 25

    2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in previous season's Diana Stakes, finishing 26



    Trainers

    North American trained runners: 7-12-70

    British-trained runners: 3-2-9

    French-trained runners: 0-2-6

    South African-trained runners: 0-2-2

    Irish-trained runners: 0-1-5

    German-trained runners: 0-0-1

    horses based in North America have represented 75% of total runners and have won 7 of last 10. British-trained runners have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 10% of total runners.

    Chad Brown (1-0-1) has seen his one runner taste in past 10 years (Stacelita in 2009).

    Bill Mott (1-0-5) has trained the winner of this twice, in 2000 & 2009.



    Price

    10 of 10 winners were sent off shorter than 10/1

    No very strong trends on prices, all 10 winners came from first 6 in the betting with the longest priced winner going off 99/10.

    Favourites (2-2-10) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 4.90 since 2004.



    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Bred in Europe or South Africa

    - Ran in Europe as a 3yo

    - Won or placed in a group race in Europe

    - Run 2 to 5 times this year

    - Finished in the first 3 in a graded/group race last time out

    - Posted an RPR of 108+ last time

    - Won over 1M 1F or further

    - Won a graded/group race

    - Finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1

    - Finished in first 3 in Very One, Sheepshead Bay and/or Modesty H’cap

    - Ran in this year’s or last year’s Diana Stakes

    - Trained by Chad Brown, Bill Mott or in Britain (and finished in first 3 in Middleton Stakes).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (13th August 2014) 


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