The Beverly D Stakes takes place on the undercard of the Arlington Million meeting on Saturday. It’s a grade 1 run over 1M 1½F for fillies & mares aged 3 or older and while the prize has kept in the US in 7 of the past 10 years, all 7 of those US-trained winners began their racing career in Europe.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
No strong trends on ages of the winners. 9 of 10 were aged 4 or 5 however the age group represented almost 80% of the total runners.
French bred: 3-1-8
British bred: 2-5-15
German bred: 2-0-5
American bred: 1-7-47
S African bred: 1-3-4
Irish bred: 1-2-7
Candadian Bred: 0-1-2
8 of 10 winners were European-bred & they represented less than 38% of total runners.
All 4 South African-bred runners have made the frame, 1 won and 3 placed.
Despite representing over 50% of the total runners, horses bred in North American have won just 1 of the last 10 runnings of the Beverly D.
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (2 exceptions finished in first 6 in a G2)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 108+ on last start
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that year (exception ran 7 times)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F+ (exception won over 1M & finished close 2nd in a grade 1 on only start over further than 1M)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded/group race (exception was 2nd in a grade 3 over CD on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group/grade 1
9 of 10 winners ran in France, Britain or Ireland as 3yos (exception raced in S Africa as a 3yo)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had finished in first 3 in group race in Europe
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race in Europe
Sheepshead Bay Stakes highest placed finisher: 14615909 (2-0-8)
Previous season's Spinster Stakes winner (Emollient): 0 (0-0-1)
Ontario Matron Stakes winner (La Tia): 9 (0-0-1)
Previous year's Arlington Oaks winner (La Tia): 5 (0-0-1)
Garden City Stakes winner (Alterite): 0 (0-0-1)
Arlington Matron Stakes winner (La Tia): 85 (0-0-2)
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 13
2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in Modesty H'cap last time, finishing 32
2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in the Sheepshead Bay H'cap, finishing 21
2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in the Very One H'cap, finishing 11
2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in previous season's Glen Falls H'cap, finishing 25
2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in previous season's Diana Stakes, finishing 26
North American trained runners: 7-12-70
British-trained runners: 3-2-9
French-trained runners: 0-2-6
South African-trained runners: 0-2-2
Irish-trained runners: 0-1-5
German-trained runners: 0-0-1
horses based in North America have represented 75% of total runners and have won 7 of last 10. British-trained runners have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 10% of total runners.
Chad Brown (1-0-1) has seen his one runner taste in past 10 years (Stacelita in 2009).
Bill Mott (1-0-5) has trained the winner of this twice, in 2000 & 2009.
10 of 10 winners were sent off shorter than 10/1
No very strong trends on prices, all 10 winners came from first 6 in the betting with the longest priced winner going off 99/10.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 4.90 since 2004.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Bred in Europe or South Africa
- Ran in Europe as a 3yo
- Won or placed in a group race in Europe
- Run 2 to 5 times this year
- Finished in the first 3 in a graded/group race last time out
- Posted an RPR of 108+ last time
- Won over 1M 1F or further
- Won a graded/group race
- Finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1
- Finished in first 3 in Very One, Sheepshead Bay and/or Modesty H’cap
- Ran in this year’s or last year’s Diana Stakes
- Trained by Chad Brown, Bill Mott or in Britain (and finished in first 3 in Middleton Stakes).