BEVERLY D STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The Beverly D Stakes takes place on the undercard of the Arlington Million meeting on Saturday. It’s a grade 1 run over 1M 1½F for fillies & mares aged 3 or older and while the prize has kept in the US in 7 of the past 10 years, all 7 of those US-trained winners began their racing career in Europe.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 0-2-6

4yo: 4-11-47

5yo: 5-2-27

6yo: 1-3-12

7yo+: 0-1-1

No strong trends on ages of the winners. 9 of 10 were aged 4 or 5 however the age group represented almost 80% of the total runners.



Breeding

French bred: 3-1-8

British bred: 2-5-15

German bred: 2-0-5

American bred: 1-7-47

S African bred: 1-3-4

Irish bred: 1-2-7

Candadian Bred: 0-1-2

Other: 0-0-5

8 of 10 winners were European-bred & they represented less than 38% of total runners.

All 4 South African-bred runners have made the frame, 1 won and 3 placed.

Despite representing over 50% of the total runners, horses bred in North American have won just 1 of the last 10 runnings of the Beverly D.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (2 exceptions finished in first 6 in a G2)

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 108+ on last start

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that year (exception ran 7 times)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F+ (exception won over 1M & finished close 2nd in a grade 1 on only start over further than 1M)

9 of 10 winners had won a graded/group race (exception was 2nd in a grade 3 over CD on previous start)

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group/grade 1

9 of 10 winners ran in France, Britain or Ireland as 3yos (exception raced in S Africa as a 3yo)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had finished in first 3 in group race in Europe

7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race in Europe



Other Races

Sheepshead Bay Stakes highest placed finisher: 14615909 (2-0-8)

Previous season's Spinster Stakes winner (Emollient): 0 (0-0-1)

Ontario Matron Stakes winner (La Tia): 9 (0-0-1)

Previous year's Arlington Oaks winner (La Tia): 5 (0-0-1)

Garden City Stakes winner (Alterite): 0 (0-0-1)

Arlington Matron Stakes winner (La Tia): 85 (0-0-2)

2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 13

2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in Modesty H'cap last time, finishing 32

2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in the Sheepshead Bay H'cap, finishing 21

2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in the Very One H'cap, finishing 11

2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in previous season's Glen Falls H'cap, finishing 25

2 of 7 American-trained winners ran in previous season's Diana Stakes, finishing 26



Trainers

North American trained runners: 7-12-70

British-trained runners: 3-2-9

French-trained runners: 0-2-6

South African-trained runners: 0-2-2

Irish-trained runners: 0-1-5

German-trained runners: 0-0-1

horses based in North America have represented 75% of total runners and have won 7 of last 10. British-trained runners have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 10% of total runners.

Chad Brown (1-0-1) has seen his one runner taste in past 10 years (Stacelita in 2009).

Bill Mott (1-0-5) has trained the winner of this twice, in 2000 & 2009.



Price

10 of 10 winners were sent off shorter than 10/1

No very strong trends on prices, all 10 winners came from first 6 in the betting with the longest priced winner going off 99/10.

Favourites (2-2-10) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 4.90 since 2004.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Bred in Europe or South Africa

- Ran in Europe as a 3yo

- Won or placed in a group race in Europe

- Run 2 to 5 times this year

- Finished in the first 3 in a graded/group race last time out

- Posted an RPR of 108+ last time

- Won over 1M 1F or further

- Won a graded/group race

- Finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1

- Finished in first 3 in Very One, Sheepshead Bay and/or Modesty H’cap

- Ran in this year’s or last year’s Diana Stakes

- Trained by Chad Brown, Bill Mott or in Britain (and finished in first 3 in Middleton Stakes).