YORKSHIRE OAKS TRENDS 2014

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The Darley Yorkshire Oaks is the highlight of day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting on Thursday 21st August. Run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares, this race is the first group 1 in which older horses can take on the classic generation over the Oaks trip. Older horses must concede 10lbs to their younger rivals.

Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings at York (2003-2013):

Age
3yo: 4-11-46
4yo: 6-4-25
5yo+: 0-0-4
4yos have won 6 of last 10 from 33% of the total runners.
4 of the 6 four-year-olds to have won the race in the past 10 runnings had run in it the year before (finishing 1st, 4th, 2nd & 2nd).
3 of 4 winnings 3yos won the Irish Oaks last time

Recent Form


6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 4 exceptions were placed in a group 1 or 2, other 2 were unplaced in the Eclipse)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 112+ that season
9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
7 of 10 winners had won a race that season (3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1 that year)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group 1, other was 3rd in Ribblesdale on only previous run in group company)
6 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at York (other 4 had yet to run at the track)

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from Irish Oaks: 7401122142 (3-3-10)
horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in previous year's Yorkshire Oaks: 9121R61 (3-1-7)
horses placed in Irish Oaks: 7405342 (0-2-7)
Epsom Oaks winner (Taghrooda): 74122 (1-2-5)
Newmarket Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Taghrooda): 5 (0-0-1)
Munster Oaks winner (Venus De Milo): 6R5 (0-0-3)
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 124
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 111
4 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's race, finishing 1422
3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf, finishing 313
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in the Eclipse last time, finishing 67
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes, finishing 33
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Prix Vermeille, 23
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Prix de l'Arc, 52
4 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora as a 3yo, finishing 1121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Nassau Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 11
5 of the last 7 winners aged 3 had won the Irish Oaks that season however horses placed in the Irish Oaks have a very poor record, gaining 0 wins and just 2 places from 11 runners since 2001.

Trainers


British trained runners: 7-11-50
Irish trained runners: 2-3-18
French trained runners: 1-1-5
German/Italian trained runners: 0-0-2
John Gosden (2-2-5) has trained 2 winners and 2 runners-up from 5 runners.
Aidan O’Brien (2-2-9) has saddled 2 winners, 1 second and 3 thirds from 9 runners.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-5) won this with Punctilious in 2005.
Luca Cumani (0-2-3) trained the runner-up in 2004 & 2005.

Price


The last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter
All 10 winners since 2003 came from first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 1.37.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 3 that won the Irish Oaks or
- Aged 4 that finished in first 4 in this race in 2013
- Run at least twice in 2014
- Won last time out
- Posted an RPR of 107+ in a group 1 or 2 last time
- Posted an RPR of 112+ in 2014
- Won over 1M 2F+
- Previously won a group 1
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd at York (or having first run here)
- Won Nassau Stakes or Pretty Polly in 2014
- Finished in first 3 in 2013 Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf and/or Prix Vermeille
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden
- From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 7/1).