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    Default YORKSHIRE OAKS TRENDS 2014

    The Darley Yorkshire Oaks is the highlight of day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting on Thursday 21st August. Run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares, this race is the first group 1 in which older horses can take on the classic generation over the Oaks trip. Older horses must concede 10lbs to their younger rivals.

    Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings at York (2003-2013):

    Age
    3yo: 4-11-46
    4yo: 6-4-25
    5yo+: 0-0-4
    4yos have won 6 of last 10 from 33% of the total runners.
    4 of the 6 four-year-olds to have won the race in the past 10 runnings had run in it the year before (finishing 1st, 4th, 2nd & 2nd).
    3 of 4 winnings 3yos won the Irish Oaks last time

    Recent Form


    6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 4 exceptions were placed in a group 1 or 2, other 2 were unplaced in the Eclipse)
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 112+ that season
    9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
    10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
    7 of 10 winners had won a race that season (3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1 that year)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further
    7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group 1, other was 3rd in Ribblesdale on only previous run in group company)
    6 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at York (other 4 had yet to run at the track)

    Other Races


    Highest placed finisher from Irish Oaks: 7401122142 (3-3-10)
    horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in previous year's Yorkshire Oaks: 9121R61 (3-1-7)
    horses placed in Irish Oaks: 7405342 (0-2-7)
    Epsom Oaks winner (Taghrooda): 74122 (1-2-5)
    Newmarket Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Taghrooda): 5 (0-0-1)
    Munster Oaks winner (Venus De Milo): 6R5 (0-0-3)
    3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 124
    3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 111
    4 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's race, finishing 1422
    3 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf, finishing 313
    2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in the Eclipse last time, finishing 67
    2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes, finishing 33
    2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 22
    2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Prix Vermeille, 23
    2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Prix de l'Arc, 52
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora as a 3yo, finishing 1121
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Nassau Stakes last time, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 11
    5 of the last 7 winners aged 3 had won the Irish Oaks that season however horses placed in the Irish Oaks have a very poor record, gaining 0 wins and just 2 places from 11 runners since 2001.

    Trainers


    British trained runners: 7-11-50
    Irish trained runners: 2-3-18
    French trained runners: 1-1-5
    German/Italian trained runners: 0-0-2
    John Gosden (2-2-5) has trained 2 winners and 2 runners-up from 5 runners.
    Aidan O’Brien (2-2-9) has saddled 2 winners, 1 second and 3 thirds from 9 runners.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-5) won this with Punctilious in 2005.
    Luca Cumani (0-2-3) trained the runner-up in 2004 & 2005.

    Price


    The last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter
    All 10 winners since 2003 came from first 3 in the betting.
    Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 1.37.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 3 that won the Irish Oaks or
    - Aged 4 that finished in first 4 in this race in 2013
    - Run at least twice in 2014
    - Won last time out
    - Posted an RPR of 107+ in a group 1 or 2 last time
    - Posted an RPR of 112+ in 2014
    - Won over 1M 2F+
    - Previously won a group 1
    - Previously finished 1st or 2nd at York (or having first run here)
    - Won Nassau Stakes or Pretty Polly in 2014
    - Finished in first 3 in 2013 Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf and/or Prix Vermeille
    - Trained by Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden
    - From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 7/1).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (18th August 2014) 


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