The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race on the card of the third day of York’s Ebor meeting on Friday 22nd August.



Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings at York (2003-2013):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

2yo: 1-1-6

3yo: 3-3-27

4yo: 2-6-33

5yo: 1-0-25

6yo+: 3-10-54

horses aged 2 to 4: 6-10-66

horses aged 5 or older: 4-10-79

Of the six 2yo runners, only 2 made the first 3 in a Royal Ascot race: Kingsgate Native & Radiohead. They were the two to make the frame in this, finishing 1st and 3rd.

4 of last 5 winners aged 3 ran in a Newmarket group 1 as 2yos (4th & 3rd Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park & 5th in Cheveley Park)



Gender

Fillies/mares (4-1-28) have won 4 of the last 10 (including the last 3) from less than 20% of total runners.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had won that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time out (8 of 9 in a class 1 race)

7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ in their last 3 runs

5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (1 exception was twice 2nd in group 1 company, 2 others had yet to run in higher than group 3)

10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group or listed race

6 of 10 winners had won over 6F



Other Races

Highest placed July Cup runner: 1772482910 (2-2-10)

City Walls Stakes winner (Take Cover): 01831 (2-1-5)

Middle Park Stakes winner (Astaire): 172 (1-1-3)

King George Stakes winner (Take Cover): 20066810 (1-1-8)

Temple Stakes winner (Hot Streak): 018096 (1-0-6)

Kings Stand winner (Sole Power): 29033 (0-3-5)

Coral Charge winner (Extortionist): 253676 (0-2-6)

Gimcrack Stakes winner (Astaire): 72 (0-1-2)

Palace House Stakes winner (Sole Power): 70503 (0-1-5)

Cornwallis Stakes winner (Hot Streak): 50 (0-0-2)

Betfred Supports Jack Berry House H'cap winner (Monsiuer Joe): 605 (0-0-3)

Prix du Gros Chene winner (Rangali): 4000450 (0-0-7)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 2709

4 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 6410

3 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 434

3 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 104

2 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in City Walls Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 09

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 63

2 of 4 female winners ran in Land O'Burns Stakes, finishing 12

4 of last 5 winners aged 3 finished in first 5 in a group 1 as a 2yo at Newmarket



Trainers

British-trained runners: 8-15-125

Irish-trained runners: 1-4-12

Australian-trained: 1-0-2

South African-trained: 0-1-2

French-trained runners: 0-0-4

Eddie Lynam (1-1-4) has trained Sole Power to win it in 2010 and finish 3rd in 2013.

Robin Bastiman (1-0-2) trained Borderlescott to win this in 2009 (and also the rearranged version in 2008 at Newmarket).

Aidan O’Brien (0-2-2) trained the winner in 1999 & 2001 (both had run in the Jersey Stakes). His 2 runners in past 10 runnings have both been placed.

Kevin Ryan (0-3-14) has seen 3 of his 14 runners make the frame while Mike De Kock (0-1-1) saddled Shea Shea to finish close 2nd last year.

Henry Candy (0-0-4) trained the winner in 2002 but has seen his last 4 all finish unplaced.



Draw

horses drawn 1 to 4: 4-7-40

horses drawn 5 to 8: 3-2-40

horses drawn 9 to 12: 3-7-36

horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-4-29

5 of last 6 winners have been drawn 7 to 12.



Price

No strong trends on prices, the first 4 winners from 2000 were favourites however 5 of last 6 winners have gone off 12/1, 9/1, 100/1, 20/1 & 40/1.

Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 6.11.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 renewals you are looking for a horse:

- 2yo that had won or placed at Royal Ascot

- 3yo that finished in first 5 in Newmarket group 1 as a 2yo or

- Aged 4+ that has won a group 1 or 2

- Fillies & mares do well (especially those that ran in Land O'Burns Stakes)

- Won a race in 2014

- Posted an RPR of 112+ in last 3 starts

- Won a group 1 or 2 sprint

- Has won over 6F

- Ran in King’s Stand, King George Stakes and/or July Cup

- Finished in first 4 in Temple, City Walls and/or Palace House Stakes

- Trained by Eddie Lynam or Aidan O’Brien

- Do not discount longshots.