LONSDALE CUP TRENDS 2014

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The Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup takes place on the Friday (22nd August) of York’s 4-day Ebor Festival. A group 2, run over 2 miles, it is one of the big staying races of the season and has been won by some of the most popular horses of the past 20 years, such as Further Flight, Persian Punch and Sergeant Cecil.



Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2003-2013):



Age

3yo: 0-0-2

4yo: 5-4-27

5yo: 2-2-18

6yo: 1-6-16

7yo+: 2-5-22

4yos have won 5 of last 10 renewals from 31.7 of the total runners.

4 of 5 winners aged 5+ had finished in first 4 in a race over 1M 4F+ at previous year’s Ebor meeting.



Gender

Fillies/mares (0-1-5) have gained no wins and 1 place from their 5 runners, though all 5 were sent off at odds in excess of 10/1.



Weight

horses carrying a 5lb penalty: 1-0-2

horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 2-3-12

Unpenalised runners: 7-14-71

Since the race became a group 2 in 2004, horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins and 3 places from 12 runners.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that year

8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time out (2 exceptions unplaced in group 2 Goodwood Cup)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 109+ last time out

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+ (1 exception, Septimus, had yet to run over further than 1M 4F and was 2nd in a group 1 over that trip on previous start)

8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had finished 2nd in two group 2's while other was having first run in class 1 company)

7 of 10 winners had won a listed/group race over 1M 6F+

5 of 10 winners had won at York (3 of other 5 were having first course start)

5 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 4 in a race over 1M 4F+ at Ebor meeting



Other Races

Highest place finisher from Yorkshire Cup: 131153205 (3-2-9)

Record of 2nd, 3rd & 4th from Yorkshire Cup: 3116701 (3-0-7)

Goodwood Cup winner (Cavalryman): 4251 (1-1-4)

Nad Al Sheba Trophy winner (Cavalryman): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous season's Doncaster Cup winner (Times Up): 671593 (1-0-6)

Previous season's Melrose Stakes winner (Dark Crusader): 67 (0-0-2)

6 of 10 winners ran in Goodwood Cup last time, finishing 348172

4 of 10 winners ran in the Yorkshire Cup, finishing 3924

3 of 10 winners ran in the Princess of Wales's Stakes, finishing 442

2 of 10 winners ran in the John Porter, finishing 44

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 52

2 of 10 winners ran in the Esher Stakes, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Dubai Gold Cup, finishing 32

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Nad Al Sheba Trophy, finishing 21

3 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in previous Doncaster Cup, finishing 124

2 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in previous Long Distance Cup, finishing 15

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 14



Trainers

Michael Stoute (1-2-5) has saddled a winner and 2 places from 5 runners since 2003.

Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-6) trained the winner in 2013 and has seen 2 of his other 5 runners since 2003 make the frame.

Nicky Henderson (0-1-1), James Fanshawe (0-1-2) and Richard Fahey (0-1-3) have all saddled 1 placed finisher since 2003.



Racing Style

7 of 10 winners were held up

Other 3 winners tracked the pace, both those winners had finished 2nd in a group 1 or 2 over 1M 4F+ that season. Since 2003 no winner has successfully made all.



Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

Millenary (2005) at 12/1 & Times Up (2012) at 11/1 have been only 2 winners priced above 7/1 since 2002.

Favourites (4-5-10) have won 4 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 2.70.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Run 2 to 6 times in 2014

- Finished in first 4 in a group or listed race last time (posting RPR of 109+)

- Won over 1M 6F+

- Won a listed or group race (preferably over 1M 6F+)

- Previously won at York (or having first course start)

- Ran in Goodwood Cup last time

- Finished in first 4 in Yorkshire Cup, Princess Of Wales’ and/or 2013 Doncaster Cup

- Finished in first 3 in Esher Stakes, Dubai Gold Cup and/or Nad Al Sheba Trophy

- Tends to be held up

- Price 7/1 or shorter (favourites do well).