The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 13rd September, is the final Classic of the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 11 of 14 winners since 2000 ran in one or the other on their previous start.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Race for 3yos.
The average dosage profile (DP) of last 10 winners is 6-2-15-6-1 (29.2pts)
Composite Dosage Index (DI) of last 10 winners is 1.10
Composite Centre Of Distribution (CD) of last 10 winners is 0.217
Fillies (0-4-8) have gained 4 places from 8 runners (3 of the 4 placed finishers were group 1 winners & the other was an unbeaten group winner).
From just 22 representatives over the last 30 runnings, fillies have a 59.1% strike rate of hitting the frame having recorded three wins (Sun Princess, Oh So Sharp & User Friendly), seven seconds (Diminuendo, Hellenic, Quiff, High And Low (2nd G1), Ramruma, Unsung Heroine (G3, 2nd g2) & Talent) and three thirds (Untold, Roseate Tern and Look Here) which is a good return.
Record of group 1 winning fillies: 232462 (0-4-6)
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.8F (2 exceptions by Kingmambo
7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Epsom or French Derby’s
5 of 10 winners were by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
Progeny of Montjeu: 18773076865121 (3-2-14)
Progeny of Kingmambo: 1381 (2-0-4)
Progeny of Galileo: 003218720927244353 (1-7-18)
All 3 runners out of a mare by Diesis were victorious
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season
7 of 10 winners won last time (3 others finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes)
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners had last run between 24 and 65 days ago
10 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 111+ on last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) won their maiden over 1M to 1M 2F
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
8 of 10 winner had won a group race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)
Queen's Vase winner (Hartnell): 21 (1-1-2)
King Edward VII Stakes winner (Eagle Top): 48 (0-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII Stakes: 231141888 (3-2-9)
4 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 3222
2 of 10 winners ran in Queen's Vase, finishing 31
Since 2001, 8 of 13 winners had posted an RPR of 103+ in finishing in first 4 in a 1M2F+ pattern race at Royal Ascot (3 others posted an RPR of 116+ in Irish Derby)
Gordon Stakes winner (Snow Sky): 42110 (2-1-5)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Hartnell): 231 (1-2-3)
Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Observational): 9613 (1-1-4)
Athassel House Stud EBF maiden winner (Buonarroti): 1 (1-0-1)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous year's Autumn Stakes winner (Kingston Hill): 2 (0-1-1)
King George V Stakes winner (Elite Army): 082 (0-1-3)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Snow Sky): 405 (0-0-3)
Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby: 1611626124 (4-2-10)
Highest placed finisher from Gordon Stakes: 42101810 (3-1-8)
Highest placed finisher from Great Voltigeur: 1531036365 (2-3-10)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 2748
4 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 1123
4 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 1132
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13
2 of 2 O'Brien-trained winners ran in Gallinule Stakes, finishing 21
John Gosden (3-1-9) has won 3 of the last 7 runnings.
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-24) has trained the winner in 2003, 2006 & 2013. His first string has a record of 2-4-10. His 2 winners in past 10 years both ran in Gallinule Stakes.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-5) saddled the winner in 2004 and the 1-2 in 2009.
Michael Stoute (1-2-10) finally gained his first win in this race in 2008 with Conduit.
Mark Johnston (0-1-1) has seen his last 2 runners finish 3rd (2002 & 2010).
No strong trends on prices, 6 of the first 7 runnings since the turn of the century were won by the favourite, however the 5 of last 6 winners have gone off 8/1, 12/1, 14/1, 15/2 & 25/1.
Favourites (4-5-11) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.68.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- By a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.8F (or by Kingmambo)
- By a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Diesis mare
- Sire finished in first 2 in Epsom/French Derby
- Dosage Index close to 1.10
- Centre Of Distribution close to 0.217
- Run 3 to 5 times in 2014
- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 111 or higher in last 2 runs
- Won a group race over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
- Ran in the Epsom Derby
- Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
- Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII, Gallinule, Queen’s Vase and/or Irish Derby
- Trained by John Gosden, Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien.