IRISH CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Irish Cambridgeshire takes place at the Curragh on Sunday, 31st October. Run over a mile for horses aged 3 or older, there’s a €60,000 prize for the winner, which looks sure to entice some British challengers across the Irish Sea, however there has been no foreign-trained winner of this in the past 30 years.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 2-8-60

4yo: 3-8-44

5yo: 1-5-47

6yo: 3-6-32

7yo+: 1-3-33

No strong trends on the ages of the winners.



Weight

horses carrying 8-10 or more: 7-16-115

horses carrying 8-9 or less: 3-14-101

Only 3 horses have won carrying 9-0 or more, one had won a listed race and the other 2 were successful in races worth 50K+

horse racing from out of the handicap: 0-3-23

Top weight: 004105106374 (2-3-12) – both top weights to win this posted a career higher RPR of 105+ when winning their latest outing.



Official Ratings

horses rated 100 or higher: 2-5-27

horses rated 90 to 99: 3-13-86

horses rated 89 or less: 5-12-103

horses officially rated 87 to 95 have won 6 of last 7 runnings.



Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in handicap worth 19K+)

10 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 89 or higher in last 3 runs (exceptions posted career high RPR of 77 last time)

9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season (exception won on only previous start)

7 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (5 have won over the CD)

10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M

8 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicaps

10 of 10 winners had won a race in a field of 12+



Other Races

Topaz Mile winner (Vastonea): 1060 (1-0-4)

Guinness Time H'cap winner (Hasanour): 0360 (0-1-4)

Bet Online at Thetote.com H'cap winner (Sophie's World): 0 (0-0-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap winner (Maggie Dalton): 8 (0-0-1)

Goresbridge Breeze Up At Gowran Park Handicap winner (Piri Wango): 0 (0-0-1)

Irish Lincolnshire winner (Stuccodor): 07 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Topaz Mile H'cap, finishing 010

3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF Habitat Handicap, finishing 376

2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap, finishing 09

2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Nasrullah' Handicap, finishing 82

2 of 10 winners ran in Aleged Stakes, finishing 65

2 of 10 winners ran in Kilboy Estate Stakes, finishing 90

2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Lincolnshire, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Cambridgeshire, finishing 50

6 of 10 winners contested a 7F or 1M handicap at that season's Galway Festival



Trainers

Mick Halford (2-1-5) trained the winner in 2006 & 2010 & saddled runner-up in 2013.

Kevin Prendergast (1-2-12) has saddled the winner in 1997, 2001 & 2005.

Andrew Oliver (1-0-3), Patrick Prendergast (1-0-4) & Aidan O’Brien (1-0-6) have all trained the winner in past 6 years.

Ger Lyons (0-2-7) & Dermot Weld (0-2-13) have both filled a couple of places since 2004.

Ken Condon (0-1-1) has seen his one runner in past 10 years finish 2nd (in 2012).

British-trained runners (0-3-15) have gained no wins and 3 places from 15 runners. 10 of those 15 runners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, including 3 favourites.



Jockey

Claimers: 4-7-71

Non-claiming jockeys: 6-23-145

In the past 7 years, a claiming jockey has ridden either the winner (4 times) or the runner-up (4 times) in each of the past 7 runnings.



Draw

horses drawn 1 to 8: 3-11-80

horses drawn 9 to 16: 4-10-80

horses drawn 17 or higher: 3-8-56

No strong trends on the draw.



Racing Tactics

5 of 10 winners led or raced prominently

2 of 10 winners raced in mid-division

3 of 10 winners race in rear



Price

Recent trend has been towards long-priced winners, with 5 of last 7 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 & 25/1

Favourites (0-5-12) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings. Silverware in 2000 was last winning market leader.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Carrying 8-10 to 9-1 or top weight that posted an RPR of 105+ in winning last time

- Officially rated 87 to 95

- Run at least 3 times in 2014

- Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a handicap worth 19K+)

- Posted an RPR of 89+ in last 3 runs

- Ran in past 45 days

- Won over 7F or 1M

- Won a race with 12 or more runners

- Ran in a handicap at 2013 Galway Festival over 7F to 1M

- Trained by Mick Halford or Kevin Prendergast

- Ridden by a claimer.