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    Info DONCASTER CUP TRENDS 2014

    The Socoialites Electric Cigarettes Doncaster Cup is the highlight of day 3 of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting, on Friday 12th September. A group 2 run over 2M 2F for 3 year olds and upwards, the key race for this has been the Lonsdale Cup, with 8 of the last 11 winners contesting it before landing this.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    3yo: 1-2-5

    4yo: 3-5-21

    5yo: 1-2-18

    6yo: 2-3-14

    7yo+: 4-3-21

    The ages of the winners has been fairly evenly spread out.

    horses aged 3 to 5: 5-9-44

    horses aged 6+: 6-6-35



    Gender

    Fillies & mares (0-1-8) have managed just 1 place from 8 runners since 2004.



    Breeding

    9 of 11 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 11.0F+

    4 of last 7 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or his son, Montjeu



    Recent/Past Form

    10 of 11 winners finished in first 3 on last flat start (exceptions unplaced in group 2 Goodwood Cup)

    10 of 11 winners (last 10) had run in past 45 days

    10 of 10 winners aged 4+ posted an RPR of 110+ in last 2 starts

    10 of 11 winners (last 10) had run 2 to 6 times on flat that year (exceptions had 4 hurdles runs)

    5 of 11 winners had won at the track (3 others finished in first 3 on only course run & 2 others making racecourse debut)

    10 of 11 winners (last 10) had won over 1M 6F+ on flat (exception had won a 2M 4F hurdle)

    7 of 11 winners had won a group 1 or 2 over 1M 6F+ (3 other finished in first 3 in group 1 or 2 over 1M 6F+)

    9 of 11 winners had won a class 1 race (1 exception was a 3yo who was 3rd in listed race last time and other was 3rd in group 3 on previous flat start)

    6 of 11 winners had won a group 2 earlier that year



    Other Races

    Previous year's winner (Times Up): 31751 (2-0-5)

    Highest place finisher from Lonsdale Cup (Estimate): 311114211 (6-2-9)

    Northumberland Plate winner (Angel Gabrial): 2 (0-1-1)

    Ebor Handicap winner (Mutual Regard): 25 (0-1-2)

    Goodwood Stakes winner (Teak): 93 (0-1-2)

    8 of 11 winners ran in Lonsdale Cup last time, finishing 31111213

    5 of 11 winners ran in Goodwood Cup, finishing 34687

    5 of 11 winners ran in Yorkshire Cup, finishing 19244

    2 of 11 winners ran in Esher Stakes, finishing 24

    2 of 11 winners (last 2) ran in Henry II Stakes, finishing 46

    2 of 11 winners ran in Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 50

    4 of 11 winners ran in previous year's Long Distance Cup, finishing 3215

    3 of 11 winners ran in previous Doncaster Cup, finishing 121

    2 of 11 winners ran in previous year's Cesarewitch, finishing 14



    Racing Style

    6 of 11 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

    5 of 11 winners tracked leader(s)

    You have to back to 2003 for last winner to make all.



    Trainers

    The now retired John Dunlop (3-0-3) won with all 3 of his runners in this race since 2004, including winning it in 2012 with Time’s Up, who then won it for Ed Dunlop (1-0-1) last year.

    John Gosden (1-0-3) won this in 2010.

    James Fanshawe (0-1-1) saddled High Jinx to finish runner-up in past 2 runnings.

    David Simcock (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up in 2009.

    Mark Prescott (0-1-4) trained Motrice to finish 3rd in 2010 & 2011.

    Irish-trained runners (3-0-8) have won 3 of last 10 from just over 10% of total runners.



    Price

    The last 9 winners have been sent off 11/2 or shorter.

    Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 3.03 since 2003.



    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Avoid fillies and mares

    - Run 2 to 6 times in 2014

    - Finished in first 3 on last flat start

    - Posted an RPR of 110+ in last 2 outings

    - Run in past 45 days

    - Has won a group or listed race (ideally won a group 2 this year)

    - Won over 1M 6F+ (ideally won group 1 or 2 over 1M 6F+)

    - Previously won or placed at Doncaster (or having first run here)

    - Finished in the first 3 in the Lonsdale Cup last time

    - Ran in the Goodwood Cup

    - Finished in first 4 in Esher Stakes and/or Yorkshire Cup in 2014

    - Finished in first 4 in 2013 Long Distance Cup and/or Doncaster Cup

    - Priced 11/2 or shorter.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (7th September 2014) 


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