OLD BOROUGH CUP TRENDS 2014

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The Betfred TV Old Borough Cup is a 1M 6F class 2 handicap that takes place at Haydock on Saturday 6th September as part of the supporting card to the Betfred Sprint Cup. The race was promoted from class 3 to class 2 in 2004, so some of the trends will focus more on the last 9 runnings when staged under current conditions. In general younger, less exposed, horses that put in a career best last time do well in this.



Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings (2003-2013):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 4-3-15

4yo: 2-12-62

5yo: 2-6-35

6yo: 1-3-24

7yo+: 1-1-20

3 year olds have won 5 of the last 11 from approximately 13% of the total runners. Strangely there has been no 3yo runners in 2010, 2011 or 2013 and there was only two 3yo runners in 2012 (provided the winner).



Weights

horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-5-25

horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-8-38

horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-8-61

horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-5-31

3 of 4 winners aged 3 carried 8-2 to 8-9 (exception carried 9-0)

5 of 6 winners aged 4+ carried 9-0 or more (exception carried 8-9)

Top weight: 505930082803 (0-3-12)



Official Ratings (2004-2013)

horses rated 95 to 105: 6-8-43

horses rated 85 to 94: 3-12-78

horses rated 83 or lower: 0-2-16

Since race became a class 2 handicap in 2004 all 8 winners were rated 90 or higher.

All three 3yo winners were rated 95 to 101

6 of 6 winners aged 4+ were rated 90 to 101.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners ran at least 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in a class 2)

9 of 10 winners posted highest RPR of past 3 years in last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 93+ in last 2 outings

5 of 6 winners aged 4+ had run in 8 to 14 handicaps

4 of 4 winners aged 3 had run in 3 to 6 handicaps

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception was placed in Ebor on previous start & other had run just once)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F

Since race became a class 2 h'cap 8 of 9 winners had won at class 3 or higher (exception had won a race in France worth 15K+, all 3 winners aged 3 had won a class 2 handicap worth 16K+)



Other Races

Betfred Exclusive Competition Handicap winner (Special Fighter): 1 (1-0-1)

Punter Southall Transaction Services Handicap winner (Epsom Hill): 0610 (1-0-4)

Previous year's Vale UK Handicap winner (Big Thunder): 3 (0-1-1)

Chester Cup winner (Suegioo): 9 (0-0-1)

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Jaguar Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Ebor H'cap, finishing 44

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Summer Stakes, finishing 24

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Northumberland Plate, finishing 76



Trainers

Mark Johnston (4-4-24) has won this 4 times since 2003, 3 of his 4 winners were aged 3. Record of Mark Johnston 3yos in this: 10310301 (3-2-8).

John Gosden (1-3-4) has saddled 1 winner, 2 seconds and 1 third from 4 runners since 2010.

Luca Cumani’s (1-1-3) last 2 runners in this were runner-up in 2007 and winner in 2011.

Philip Kirby (1-0-1) trained the winner last year, while James Fanshawe (1-0-2) & Michael Stoute (1-0-3) have also saddled the winner once in past 10 runnings.

Mark Prescott (0-2-3) has saddled 2 placed finishers (both 4yos) from 3 runners.

Roger Charlton’s (0-1-1) has saddled 2 runners since 2002, winner in 2002 & runner-up in 2013.

ED Dunlop (0-1-2) has saddled the runner-up twice since 2000 from 4 runners.



Racing Tactics

6 of 7 winners on good or firmer were held up in midfield or rear

All 3 winners on ground softer than good led or raced close to leaders



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 11/1 or shorter

horses prominent in the betting have done well in this with 9 of last 10 winners coming from the first 6 in the betting.

Favourites (4-5-12) have a very strong record, having won 5 of the last 11, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50 since 2003.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 3 to 5 (especially 3yos)

- 3yo carrying 8-9 to 9-1 or a 4 or 5yo carrying 9-2 or more

- Officially rated 95 or higher

- Ran at least 4 times in 2014

- Finished in the first 4 last time

- Posted highest RPR of 97+ in last 2 starts

- Won a race in 2014

- Run in 6 or fewer handicaps (no more than 14 if aged 4+)

- Won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F

- Previously won a class 2 or 3 race worth 10K+

- Aged 3 that finished in first 6 in London Gold Cup, Melrose and/or Jaguar Stakes

- Aged 4+ that placed in Ebor H’cap and/or Summer Stakes

- Hold up horses favoured on fast ground

- horses who race prominently favoured on softer

- Trained by Mark Johnston, John Gosden, Roger Charlton or Luca Cumani

- Priced 11/1 or shorter [favourite does well]