DONCASTER CUP TRENDS 2014

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The Socoialites Electric Cigarettes Doncaster Cup is the highlight of day 3 of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting, on Friday 12th September. A group 2 run over 2M 2F for 3 year olds and upwards, the key race for this has been the Lonsdale Cup, with 8 of the last 11 winners contesting it before landing this.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-2-5

4yo: 3-5-21

5yo: 1-2-18

6yo: 2-3-14

7yo+: 4-3-21

The ages of the winners has been fairly evenly spread out.

horses aged 3 to 5: 5-9-44

horses aged 6+: 6-6-35



Gender

Fillies & mares (0-1-8) have managed just 1 place from 8 runners since 2004.



Breeding

9 of 11 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 11.0F+

4 of last 7 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or his son, Montjeu



Recent/Past Form

10 of 11 winners finished in first 3 on last flat start (exceptions unplaced in group 2 Goodwood Cup)

10 of 11 winners (last 10) had run in past 45 days

10 of 10 winners aged 4+ posted an RPR of 110+ in last 2 starts

10 of 11 winners (last 10) had run 2 to 6 times on flat that year (exceptions had 4 hurdles runs)

5 of 11 winners had won at the track (3 others finished in first 3 on only course run & 2 others making racecourse debut)

10 of 11 winners (last 10) had won over 1M 6F+ on flat (exception had won a 2M 4F hurdle)

7 of 11 winners had won a group 1 or 2 over 1M 6F+ (3 other finished in first 3 in group 1 or 2 over 1M 6F+)

9 of 11 winners had won a class 1 race (1 exception was a 3yo who was 3rd in listed race last time and other was 3rd in group 3 on previous flat start)

6 of 11 winners had won a group 2 earlier that year



Other Races

Previous year's winner (Times Up): 31751 (2-0-5)

Highest place finisher from Lonsdale Cup (Estimate): 311114211 (6-2-9)

Northumberland Plate winner (Angel Gabrial): 2 (0-1-1)

Ebor Handicap winner (Mutual Regard): 25 (0-1-2)

Goodwood Stakes winner (Teak): 93 (0-1-2)

8 of 11 winners ran in Lonsdale Cup last time, finishing 31111213

5 of 11 winners ran in Goodwood Cup, finishing 34687

5 of 11 winners ran in Yorkshire Cup, finishing 19244

2 of 11 winners ran in Esher Stakes, finishing 24

2 of 11 winners (last 2) ran in Henry II Stakes, finishing 46

2 of 11 winners ran in Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 50

4 of 11 winners ran in previous year's Long Distance Cup, finishing 3215

3 of 11 winners ran in previous Doncaster Cup, finishing 121

2 of 11 winners ran in previous year's Cesarewitch, finishing 14



Racing Style

6 of 11 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

5 of 11 winners tracked leader(s)

You have to back to 2003 for last winner to make all.



Trainers

The now retired John Dunlop (3-0-3) won with all 3 of his runners in this race since 2004, including winning it in 2012 with Time’s Up, who then won it for Ed Dunlop (1-0-1) last year.

John Gosden (1-0-3) won this in 2010.

James Fanshawe (0-1-1) saddled High Jinx to finish runner-up in past 2 runnings.

David Simcock (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up in 2009.

Mark Prescott (0-1-4) trained Motrice to finish 3rd in 2010 & 2011.

Irish-trained runners (3-0-8) have won 3 of last 10 from just over 10% of total runners.



Price

The last 9 winners have been sent off 11/2 or shorter.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 3.03 since 2003.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Avoid fillies and mares

- Run 2 to 6 times in 2014

- Finished in first 3 on last flat start

- Posted an RPR of 110+ in last 2 outings

- Run in past 45 days

- Has won a group or listed race (ideally won a group 2 this year)

- Won over 1M 6F+ (ideally won group 1 or 2 over 1M 6F+)

- Previously won or placed at Doncaster (or having first run here)

- Finished in the first 3 in the Lonsdale Cup last time

- Ran in the Goodwood Cup

- Finished in first 4 in Esher Stakes and/or Yorkshire Cup in 2014

- Finished in first 4 in 2013 Long Distance Cup and/or Doncaster Cup

- Priced 11/2 or shorter.