Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,945
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked:        1,657
    Karma Level
    318

    Info IRISH CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2014

    The Qipco Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday, 13th September, is one of the highest quality flat races run in Europe each year. There have been some superb duels down the years such as St Jovite & Dr Devious, Fantastic Light & Galileo and Dylan Thomas & Ouija Board.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    3yo: 6-4-29

    4yo: 2-8-22

    5yo: 2-2-14

    6yo+: 0-0-5

    3yos (6-4-29) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 4-10-41), having won 6 of last 10 and in 2 of 4 other runnings there was no 3yo runner priced shorter than 12/1.

    Record of 3yo colts that had won a group 1 that year: 412111321153 (6-3-12)



    Gender

    Fillies and mares (2-3-11) have gained 2 wins and 3 places from 11 runners in the past 10 years.

    Record of female runners aged 4+ that were sent off shorter than 20/1: 332211 (2-2-6)

    3 of 5 female runners to get placed had finished 1st or 2nd in Nassau on previous start, other 2 had won the group 1 Prix Jean Romanet or Yorkshire Oaks on previous start and both had finished in first 2 in previous year’s Nassau

    All five 3yo fillies to run in this since 2000 finished unplaced.



    Recent/Past Form

    9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season (1 exceptions finished first past post on only run that year)

    10 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts

    8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (2 exceptions were 3rd & 4th in Juddmonte International)

    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ last time

    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F (exception won St James Palace last time & was having first run over further than a mile)

    10 of 10 winners had won a group 1

    7 of 10 winners had won multiple group 1's (3 exceptions were all 3yos)

    6 of 10 winners had previously run at Leopardstown (5 were unbeaten at the track and other was 2nd in this race the previous year on only course start)

    5 of 6 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo

    3 of 4 winners aged 4+ had won 4 or more group 1's (exception had won 2)



    Other Races

    Eclipse Stakes winner (Mukhadram): 2113122 (3-3-7)

    Previous season's Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 111 (3-0-3)

    Epsom Derby winner (Australia): 211 (2-1-3)

    Irish Derby winner (Australia): 41213 (2-1-5)

    Beresford Stakes winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 11 (2-0-2)

    Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (Noble Mission): 36712 (1-2-5)

    Judmonte International winner (Australia): 12 (1-1-2)

    Derrinstown Derby Trial winner (Fascinating Rock): 41264 (1-1-5)

    Previous year's Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 1 (1-0-1)

    Yorkshire Oaks winner (Tapestry): 1 (1-0-1)

    Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Magician): 1 (1-0-1)

    Previous season's Dewhurst winner (War Command): 14 (1-0-2)

    Gordon Richard Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 42 (0-1-2)

    Previous year's Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 26 (0-1-2)

    Ballysax Stakes winner (Fascinating Rock): 24 (0-1-2)

    Meld Stakes winner (Parish Hall): 63 (0-0-2)

    Royal Whip Stakes winner (Hall Of Mirrors): 487 (0-0-3)

    4 of 10 winners ran in Judmonte International last time, finishing 4231

    4 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 1117

    2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 12

    4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Derby, finishing 0311

    4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 3421

    3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas finishing 222

    3 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Futurity as a 2yo

    2 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Beresford as a 2yo

    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 21

    2 of 6 winners aged 3 won the Tyros as a 2yo

    3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 223

    2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 21



    Trainers

    Aidan O’Brien (5-5-25) has a super record in this race having won 6 of the last 11 runnings. If you just count his first strings his record in past 10 years is 4-3-10.

    John Oxx (2-0-5) won this with Sea The Star in 2009 & Azamour in 2004.

    Jim Bolger (1-1-8) won the race in 2008 with New Approach.

    John Gosden (1-1-2) saddled The Fugue to win it last year and Nathaniel to finish 2nd in 2012. His only other runners in this since 1990 were 2nd & 4th in 1994 & winner in 1993.

    Roger Charlton (0-1-1) trained Al Kazeem to finish runner-up last year.

    Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-2) won this 4 times in 5 years between 1998 & 2002 but his last 2 runners have both been unplaced.

    Dermot Weld (0-0-4) has never trained the winner of this group 1.

    British-trained runners (2-7-20) have won the last 2, both fillies.



    Price

    10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting

    The longest priced winner in past 10 years has been 8/1, not a race for big turn-ups.

    Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of last 8 though show a level stakes loss of 1.31 since 2004.



    Summary:

    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - 3yo that won a group race as a 2yo & a group 1 in 2014 or

    - Aged 4 or 5 and has won 4 or more group 1 races

    - Run 3+ times this season & won 1 of last 2 starts

    - Posted an RPR of 118+ last time

    - Won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F

    - Won a group 1 (won 4 or more if aged 4+)

    - Unbeaten at Leopardstown

    - Finished in first 3 in King George, Eclipse and/or Juddmonte International

    - 3yo finished in first 4 in Irish/English 2000 Guineas and/or Derby

    - 4yo+ finished in first 3 in Prince Of Wales or Tattersalls Gold Cup

    - Trained by Aidan O’Brien, John Oxx or John Gosden

    - From first 4 in the betting.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (8th September 2014) 


Similar Threads

  1. IRISH CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2015
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 2nd September 2015, 05:24 PM
  2. CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 14th October 2014, 11:37 AM
  3. IRISH CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2013
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 2nd September 2013, 05:12 PM
  4. IRISH CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2012
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 7th September 2012, 09:41 PM
  5. IRISH CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2011
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 2nd September 2011, 11:41 AM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •