MATRON STAKES TRENDS 2014

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The Coolmore Fastnet Rock Matron Stakes is a group 1 race for fillies and mares, run over a mile and is part of the supporting card at Leopardstown on Irish Champion Stakes Day on 13th September. The race was given group 1 status in 2004 and has been won by some very useful horses, such as Soviet Song and Attraction. British raiders have done very well in the race recently, winning 6 of last 10 renewals.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 4-10-54

4yo: 4-2-22

5yo: 2-4-8

6yo+: 0-1-2

horses aged 4 or 5 have won 6 of last 10 from approximately 35% of total runners.

In the four years that 3yos won this as a group 1 only 3 of the 8 older horses to run in it were priced under 16/1: (Peeress 2nd in 2006, Heaven Sent 2nd in 2009 & Spacious 2nd in 2010).

3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won at Royal Ascot (other was 3rd in Coronation Stakes).

There has been no winner aged older than 5 in past 30 years and only two 5yo winners (Echelon in 2007 & Chachamaidee 2012), both of whom ran in Celebration Mile on previous start.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that year

6 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a group race last time (2 exceptions were 4th against colts and another was 5th in group 1 Falmouth)

8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 111+ in last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had won over a mile

7 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above that year

10 of 10 winners had won a group race (6 were group 1 winners)



Other Races

Lanwades Stud Stakes winner (Purr Along): 1137 (2-1-4)

Coronation Stakes winner (Rizeena): 2411 (2-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from Coronation Stakes: 2643111444 (3-2-10)

Sandringham Handicap winner (Muteela): 191d (1-1-3)

Falmouth Stakes winner (Integral): 123 (1-1-3)

Highest placed finisher from Falmouth Stakes: 15432236 (1-3-8)

Yorkshire Oaks winner (Tapestry): 1 (1-0-1)

Debutante Stakes winner (Tapestry): 318 (1-0-3)

Brownstown Stakes winner (Tobann): 0195 (1-0-4)

Sun Chariot Stakes winner (Sky Lantern): 23 (0-2-2)

Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Rizeena): 338 (0-1-3)

Duke Of Cambridge Stakes winner (Integral): 7 (0-0-1)

Weld Park Stakes winner (My Titania): 40 (0-0-2)

Athasi Stakes winner (Flying Jib): 48 (0-0-2)

Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Afternoon Sunlight): 568 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 145

3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 131

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 22

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 1000 Guineas, finishing 65

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54

3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Sun Chariot, finishing 124

3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Lanwades Stud Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, finishing 52

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's renewal, finishing 25

2 of 2 winners aged 5 ran in Celebration Mile last time, finishing 14

6 of 10 winners had run in the 1000 Guineas as a 3yo, finishing 419655

5 of 10 winners had run in Coronation Stakes as a 3yo, finishing 21131



Trainers

British-trained horses: 6-8-27

Irish-trained horses: 4-9-58

British-based trainers have a very strong record in this race, having won 7 of the last 11 despite representing less than a third of the total runners.

Record of British-trained priced 6/1 or shorter: 6-8-17

Aidan O’Brien (1-5-19) won the race for the first time in 2010 with Lillie Langtry but his record prior to that had been very disappointing considering the number of fancied runners he’d saddled in the race.

Michael Stoute (1-3-4) has saddled 2 winners and 3 seconds from 5 runners since 2003.

Mark Johnston (1-2-3) has trained 1 winner and 2 runners-up from 3 runners.

Dermot Weld (1-1-7) trained the winner in 2002 and 2011.

Jim Bolger (1-0-4) & John Gosden (1-0-4) have also both trained the winner since 2004.



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below

The only winner from outside the first 4 in the betting was La Collina at 25/1 last year.

Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 0.37.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- 3yo that won at Royal Ascot or aged 4 or 5

- Had 3 or more starts in 2014

- Finished in the first 2 in group company last time

- Posted an RPR of 111+ in last 2 starts

- Previously won over a mile

- Won a group race (preferably a group 1)

- Ran in the 1000 Guineas and/or Coronation Stakes as a 3yo

- Finished in first 4 in 2014 Falmouth and/or 2013 Sun Chariot Stakes

- Finished in first 3 in Coronation and/or Nassau Stakes

- Lanwades Stud Stakes winners do well in this

- Trained in Britain (especially by Michael Stoute or Mark Johnston)

- Priced 6/1 or below.